Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 8, 2022

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Fri Sep 30 14:46:06 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the median vote share was moved to the national average (ie: shift MI08, OH13, NJ07 to d+4.5)... the Democrats still wouldn't be favored. What would have 2x that effect? Moving 10 D+6 to D+4.5 CDs to D+2.2. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 30, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you want to see why the size of the bias in seats is relevant, just look at the The Economist model. Democrats currently at a 50.1 to 49.9 tie in the popular vote, favored to win 214, and the favorite *in* an outright majority of districts. Very fair https://t.co/y8vIc57R8C — PolitiTweet.org

A note on this piece https://t.co/qDrxLgK8KG Whether 2022's House maps are better for Democrats or Republicans than… https://t.co/Qgi33ff3gv

Posted Sept. 30, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And very minor shifts in turnout in blue CDs /individual races would be sufficient to make the Democrats favored to win without the popular vote in this model — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 30, 2022