Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, Dems don't have to try and figure out how to win the last election. They do need a better pitch: their 92-16 pitch is gone, and their 16-20 pitch (trump bad) is gone now too. But Trump was also a big impediment to a better pitch, and there's more room for it now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

4) Incumbency is really powerful. It's a lot easier to set the agenda and define what you're for when you're in charge. For ex.: if Biden wants to be tough on China and own that issue, he can do that in a way Democrats simply couldn't when Trump was POTUS. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, they do not appear willing to co-opt his message, and several influential minorities of the party remain pretty committed to playing into the Trump wedge issues where the party, as a whole, realizes it's not on firm ground (defund police as one ex.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

3) Democrats have a really tough to choice on how to compete with a Trump-like GOP. OTOH, they appear unwilling to own the anti-Trump position on many of his favored issues--IE become a rich left-liberal party of free trade, immigration, no trade wars, various lefty social stuff — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On cultural issues, no one was going to see Trump as the embodiment of cultural conservatism--no matter who he nominated to the courts. Instead, Democrats attacked him more on his conduct/statements--and I think we can say this just wasn't as material as Dems wanted — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This playbook didn't work against Trump On economics, he flipped the tables on outsourcing/trade/China, took social security off the table, and added immigration as a pitch, etc. Yes, he kept the tax cuts. But this is a far stronger economic position for the GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To oversimplify *a lot*: between 92-12, Dems won elections by saying that the GOP was the party of business/corporations and the religious right. They were at their best when they could attack the GOP for outsourcing and trying to get rid of Planned Parenthood. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) Democrats *do* need to recognize just how much Trump pitch has really undermined the way they usually win elections. This has been true since 2016, but it's been obscured by the focus on Trump's appeals on race/immigration--and that liberals didn't appreciate the 'old' way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or put differently: I'm not really sure there was much Democrats could do about what happened here. Trump completely dominated American life for the last four years, people knew what they thought of it, and it's hard to believe there were magic words to undo it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) Democrats shouldn't blame themselves for *quite* so much! This election was about Trump. He was the incumbent. It was a referendum on him, and everyone knew it. If the GOP did better, it's mainly because Trump was stronger than understood--not simply because Dems blew it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A few random thoughts this morning on what Democrats should take from the election results, as the recriminations and so on begin — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A majority of the tweets at the time--including one from a colleague lol--were that we should take it down! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This was obviously a fine moment for the needle, but the real proof is to go through the replies. They're amazing https://t.co/GaZVXztnbK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes @mattyglesias now it so happens that our third state--GA--was the *only* major battleground where biden basically matched his preelection polls, so you get to say it was overconfident, even though it would have looked far *ahead* if any other state was part of the trio — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes @mattyglesias maybe? the early FL/NC results were nothing short of calamitous for biden, and suggested we were going to have an extremely close election that was not like the preelection polls. i think it was extremely clear about that and right — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes @mattyglesias and while i wasn't watching TV, i'd sure guess your network wasn't saying anything different or better. i'd guess it was far worse, and i'd guess you too were salivating at early OH/IA/NC numbers. and i don't see anyone saying you were wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes @mattyglesias and when it did flip on georgia, i didn't anyone on here here saying 'oh of course.' i saw disbelief. i didn't even believe it until i really got to dig in! so it's not like it was any more misleading than the plainly available fact that trump was doing way better than expected — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes @mattyglesias and when it did flip on georgia, i didn't anyone on here here saying 'oh of course.' i saw disbelief. i didn't even believe it until i really got to dig in! so it's not like, it was any more misleading than the plainly available fact that trump was doing way better than expected — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes @mattyglesias even at its worst moment, i think it still left a far more accurate impression than the breathless and preposterous analysis of ohio and north carolina early votes that i saw on this website at the time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes @mattyglesias literally insane — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@chrislhayes @mattyglesias lol this is like complaining that bonds fouled a pitch off—trump doing better than expected literally everywhere—before hitting the home run — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I wasn't awake when Arizona was projected, but Trump was mathematically eliminated when I first looked, so I'd guess that's what they were waiting for. Kind of understandable given the lack of data on the composition of the late votes to count, but certainly quite cautious — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Georgia they waited for counties to certify their votes, prior to the recount--and then went with the 'apparent winner' call. That's a plausible level of protection against 'irregularities,' or the unlikely possibility that a county still had votes to count, unbeknownst to us — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Georgia, it seems like they waited for every county to certify their votes, prior to the recount--and then went with the 'apparent winner' call. I guess that's a plausible level of protection against 'irregularities' and so on — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's interesting to consider what finally put the networks over the edge on making these calls, given that the outcome in all of these states has been an inevitability for some time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's final: Joe Biden 306, Donald Trump 232 Biden wins Georgia. Trump wins North Carolina. https://t.co/pc1wRYJmG7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the remaining provisional ballots are disproportionately in Democratic areas and especially Philadelphia, so I'd expect Biden to pad his lead. At the moment, I think I'd bet against him getting to 100k out of it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The provisionals are the key to getting Biden up to 100k+, and they're not *amazing* for Biden. The prov results in Allegheny so far aren't as good for Biden as previously advertised by county officials. In general, provisionals are ~like the non-prov by county — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

From there, we've got --10k late absentees--which I'd expect to be good (say 2-1) but maybe not amazing for Biden, since Dems disproportionately returned their ballots early. -- ~70k uncounted provisionals, very disproportionately in Dem areas — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Right now, Biden's up ~60k and there are another ~40k regular absentees. So getting into the 75-80k range before provisionals/post-election absentees is straightforward, even if we conservatively assume that a disproportionate share of remaining absentees will be rejected — PolitiTweet.org