Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Nov 13 14:28:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The provisionals are the key to getting Biden up to 100k+, and they're not *amazing* for Biden. The prov results in Allegheny so far aren't as good for Biden as previously advertised by county officials. In general, provisionals are ~like the non-prov by county — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

From there, we've got --10k late absentees--which I'd expect to be good (say 2-1) but maybe not amazing for Biden, since Dems disproportionately returned their ballots early. -- ~70k uncounted provisionals, very disproportionately in Dem areas — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the remaining provisional ballots are disproportionately in Democratic areas and especially Philadelphia, so I'd expect Biden to pad his lead. At the moment, I think I'd bet against him getting to 100k out of it — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020 Hibernated