Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Fri Nov 13 14:25:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

From there, we've got --10k late absentees--which I'd expect to be good (say 2-1) but maybe not amazing for Biden, since Dems disproportionately returned their ballots early. -- ~70k uncounted provisionals, very disproportionately in Dem areas — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Right now, Biden's up ~60k and there are another ~40k regular absentees. So getting into the 75-80k range before provisionals/post-election absentees is straightforward, even if we conservatively assume that a disproportionate share of remaining absentees will be rejected — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The provisionals are the key to getting Biden up to 100k+, and they're not *amazing* for Biden. The prov results in Allegheny so far aren't as good for Biden as previously advertised by county officials. In general, provisionals are ~like the non-prov by county — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 13, 2020 Hibernated