Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not like it will convince anyone, but Biden had a 78-21 lead in the Pennsylvania mail ballots counted on Election Night and only 76-23 in the final mail ballot count (so presumably something like 74-25 in the post-election count) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden generally did better in the mail ballots on Election Night than those counted after Election Night, including in Pennsylvania https://t.co/gWwefMUgrK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten to be fair, they think kennedy stole that one too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The important takeaway from all of this, of course, is that the US of Canada v. Jesusland map is probably in need of an update of some kind — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And here's the 04-20 shift in map-form https://t.co/BCznO0EBxx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We talk a lot about how the battlegrounds are disproportionately white, no degree--which is true!--but they're not Arkansas or West Virginia, or something, where the GOP has really made stupendous gains over the last 16 years — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And in a certain sense, it is pretty remarkable that Trump wasn't able to flip any Kerry states, despite making such huge gains among whites without a degree--including states where >50% of votes fall into the category — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you look at long term change this way--in terms of state flips--it highlights the growing diversity of the electorate, which nudged (as many predicted at the time!) these states toward Dems. OTOH, it obscures wild swings among white voters by education and region — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This way of thinking highlight the growing diversity of the electorate, helping to nudge (as many predicted at the time!) both regions toward Dems. OTOH, it obscures wild swings among white voters by education and region — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One simple way of thinking about the Biden coalition--and maybe not a very good one--is to note that it's the Kerry '04 states, plus NM/NV/CO/AZ in the southwest and GA/VA in the southeast. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @adamliptak: BREAKING: The Supreme Court denies Pennsylvania Republicans’ election challenge — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh don't they have to vote on the waiver in the house? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Really tough call for the fraud people here: more in-person voting means more use of Dominion machines (nvm Trump crushed the in-person vote!); more absentee voting means... whatever it is they think happens with absentee voting. Can't win! https://t.co/tOHcd4Kvk3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My expectation is that Dems will do better in-person early vote v. the general, on the assumption many general election absentee voters will still prefer to vote in advance. But we'll have to wait and see; it won't be quite as straightforward of a comparison as I'd dream — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even if the partisan composition of the electorate was going to be exactly the same as the general, I don't think it's realistic to think the absentee share of the special electorate would look as it did in the general, given how much longer Dems had to sign up for the general — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We could get some decent signal on changes in turnout with advance voting data, though tbh the absentee voting surge for the general will make it more difficult to parse this than you might think — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polls don't really seem to show this so far, and therefore we're probably in the range where the polls won't help us much over the hard results from November. The changes in attitudes are too small to be precisely measured, and polls aren't good at measuring changing turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think there's really one case in which we'd learn something from the polls in Georgia: if they showed the GOP cle… https://t.co/F2RzD6Fqvf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For those of you who are lucky enough to live anywhere else (but SF/LA, I suppose), it's really terrible to be stuck with two teams--let alone two bad teams--in your media market, especially if you're not rooting for either of them — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And here I thought this SEA-NYG game would be the very first time I would ever be rewarded for watching football in the New York media market — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Omaheef yes, 180 days before the date — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth keeping this in mind as you look at the requests for the GA runoff. A huge number of these ballots were requested back in April. The folks requesting ballots now are overwhelmingly Democratic https://t.co/id74gEqEtR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The y-axis is the share of applicants (with a record of partisan voting) who are recent Democratic primary voters. GA doesn't have party registration, so it's the best we've got — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In April, the early absentee ballot requests were overwhelmingly GOP after the primary was delayed and the SOS mailed out absentee requests. Over time, Trump polarized the issue and Democrats became far likelier to apply. https://t.co/vMq505s5BL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One measure of how absentee ballots became partisan over time in Georgia: the partisanship of absentee ballot requests by date https://t.co/smUYmjp1Uj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To this point, I'm reminded of the GA-6 runoff polls back in 2017. The D/R split in the primary beat the polls, including a variety of SurveyUSA polls (which peaked at Ossoff+7) https://t.co/xBLRrepgCG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In all seriousness: we just had an accurate poll of 5 million Georgians last month, and barring a huge shift--not suggested by any data at this point--I'm just not sure we have a great empirical basis to know how to balance that hard data with the pre-election polling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or it's just the classic 'winners bias' in recalled voting. Or there's no recalled vote bias, and the sample is just biased toward Democrats, like many pre-election polls were https://t.co/bqBjsXdFzt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ijbailey yes, i think the piece would have been stronger if it also talked about the decline in the white share of the electorate, which was a piece of flipping the state blue. but i don't think either claim would be misleading — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@blfraga @RyanDEnos 27% of 'other' as black — PolitiTweet.org