Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Mon Dec 07 15:37:45 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We could get some decent signal on changes in turnout with advance voting data, though tbh the absentee voting surge for the general will make it more difficult to parse this than you might think — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polls don't really seem to show this so far, and therefore we're probably in the range where the polls won't help us much over the hard results from November. The changes in attitudes are too small to be precisely measured, and polls aren't good at measuring changing turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Even if the partisan composition of the electorate was going to be exactly the same as the general, I don't think it's realistic to think the absentee share of the special electorate would look as it did in the general, given how much longer Dems had to sign up for the general — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 7, 2020 Hibernated