Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh perhaps, though i don't think any analyst would have meaningfully altered their prediction for the composition of the electorate in Georgia in 2022 as a result of this law or its fallout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @JonHoadley just eyebaling the turnout in the city of michigan and adjacent majority black jurisdictions, it seems pretty clear that the same basic turnout pattern played out there too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@stphnfwlr https://t.co/E23SGUvhxF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie you should check out what my feed looked like with bernie supporters in the primary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Reuters: Name of vaccine Russia's Vladimir Putin to take will be a secret, says Kremlin https://t.co/HrOpc1a4f3 https://t.co/OZRucPGXej — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc depends on the magnitude of the noise, i suppose. it's certainly true that theoretical GOP EC-PV maximum is probably when all of these tipping-point plausible states vote the exact same way (conditional on the base states remaining as they are) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmladd @davidshor @kimballdc no, it's true without a uniform swing; it's wrong if there is a uniform swing, as a uniform swing would have zero effect on the EC-PV gap — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll: in your view, is it acceptable for a state to only offer mail voting, where all voters are sent ballots but only one in-person voting site exists per county? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll: in your view, is it acceptable for a state to only offer a vote-by-mail system, where all voters are sent ballots but only one in-person voting site exists per county? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Poll: in your view, is it acceptable for a state to only offer mail voting, with one in-person voting site per county? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @julia_azari @smotus if it is a driving factor--and i'm sure it is, but i think it very well could be--i think it would be very difficult to identify with such a small number of data points and our inability to specify a full model of presidential approval — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @julia_azari @smotus (and that's leaving aside that different model specifications may yield some pretty different results!) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject Incumbent presidents have held up better than average in the RGV (that darkest color is 10 pts), though until 2020 it would look mainly like a southern thing and it has very limited predictive value in 20, controlling for demographics — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid @tbonier c) when we're talking about an extremely high turnout election like this one, i don't see why we would ever suppose that a decline in turnout is anything other than a problem with persuasion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mattyglesias: People are asking too much of the CDC — their longstanding guidelines say that all steak should be cooked to at least med… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it was also reinforced by the contrast of in Democratic midterm losses in 10/14, which were certainly exacerbated by a less favorable turnout. Democrats lost the plot when they tried to explain 2016 (and now 2020) in the same way https://t.co/V9ljAFYWpB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I don't think this takes away from candidates, folks who organize and work in state parties, etc.; it's not enough to have the wind at your back, you do have to sail etc. But what happened in Georgia isn't going to happen elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The case against it mainly boils down to delaying the package as a whole, but: --I'm not really convinced there's actually a great risk of delay, given that Democrats can bolt to reconciliation quickly --Delay can be the excuse that lets progressives get to 2000 dollar checks — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nickconfessore: Imagine if impeachment was a secret ballot. https://t.co/Z3tfBLX5Fz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: Usually people running grifts are a little smoother than this. https://t.co/j3BtS1SoRu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@skoczela @nataliemj10 @drjjdyck if that's true, then i do think we have to ask just how well the democracy was well served by poll questions saying that >90% of americans support background checks--even if you think there was zero measurement error in those polls (which i don't) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@OsitaNwanevu @hill_charlotte so to circle back to the beginning: there's a straightforard case for eliminating the filibuster; there's not a straightforward case if you think the GOP is a serious threat to the continuity of democratic governance — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @seungminkim: Could anyone have predicted this alert a week ago I mean https://t.co/uSnMB6whj0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @germanrlopez: A lot of people on the left really seem to have no idea how hugely destructive last year's riots were. People were killed… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ossoff's lead is still just slim enough that you do want to make sure that some of these late absentees and provisionals really materialize to the extent we project. I'd think we could see some projections in the Warnock race tonight — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The GOP lead has steadily grown, but it's made no dent in our estimate. In fact, Democratic chances have inched upward as the GOP opportunities for a comeback gradually dwindle — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

ex. of an unlikely error: 'what if the dekalb county vote is 'actually' in, unbeknownst to us.' we humans know that's not so, but those of you who may remember NC on election night know that these kind of errors happen — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a ton of Atlanta area vote left, and it thinks anything is possible the long history of 'anything happening.' And while there were huge sources of uncertainty at the beginning of the night (650 or 1.3 million eday votes!) I just don't think they're there anymore — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Early voting has been particularly Dem. By our estimates, early voting turnout among Biden voters is at 84% of general election levels. If you think that persists on Election Day, then you wind up at something like 2.1 million Biden voters, even if you don't adjust for lost days — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Early voting has been particularly Democratic. By our estimates, early voting turnout among Biden voters is at 84% of general election levels. If you think that persists on Election Day, then you wind up with something like 2.1 million Biden voters — PolitiTweet.org