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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@rperezmarco @dcrash9 But...I said the same thing, no? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@rperezmarco @dcrash9 ...but not working. They are voting for my solution (equiprobable)! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
A much easier (and more standard) problem. — PolitiTweet.org
級数bot @infseriesbot
https://t.co/Hvbeyj5DrC
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Solution (@DrMichaelBonner & @financequant): just as we have arguments "ad hominem" we have blanket arguments: 'ad 'quemquam' = 'against anyone'; 'ad quidquam' = 'against anything'. My proposal: I call that "fortune cookie criticism" https://t.co/RiINsRTCBb — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
There must be a word to describe a commentary that applies to any situation: you don't need to know anything abt th… https://t.co/Mjv28OdsYg
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Michael Bonner @DrMichaelBonner in his review linked Skin in the Game to Christology: A god with nothing to lose would be like an illusionist. Which explains the insistance on the dual character of Christ by most traditions. https://t.co/3Ku6Gzu5M2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@digvijoy_c @golchhaJ Given the variance per throw is p (1-p) with p=2^20 this is equality of 3 within statistical significance. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@MamanLunettes Wait until our Good Friday, Violetta. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Just a reminder on this (Non-Orthodox) Good Friday that the appeal of the Christ is that it allowed G...d to have #skininthegame. #Christianity is about that skin in the game, little else. https://t.co/jlGLeFUqgI — PolitiTweet.org
Lee Alley @lee_alley
"A god that is invincible, beyond pain and death, is not a god worth believing in. God becomes human in the person… https://t.co/To4D3HdqGg
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@andrei_chiffa @janwillemluiten @GidMK @HomegrownJoan2 @MarcosCarreira @MackayIM Before bullshitting any further, Mr Chiffa, please provide some backup to your claims abt my mathematical statements and show us why you need to be taken seriously. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@geoffreydgraham Worth the trip, — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Intellectuals on the left let you know they are on the left. Those on the right usually tell you they are on the center. Those on the center don't tell you anything. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Some people conflated this problem with a sequence of 20 in an open sequence of n>20, which would then necessitate a Markov chain. See the treatment below in a dialogue with the late Maestro Alexander Bogomolny. https://t.co/XFS8L1G0zz — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) The Markov chain: the expectation is 4 periods for one, 6 for the other. It is ONLY counterintuitive then you ar… https://t.co/oj8QQxCiwg
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@skaf777 Same problem. If you assume that n=20, then the prob =2^20 as you are dealing with a specific block. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@janssenjacob You are not looking for a sequence, hence a path, but a certain specific ensemble with P=2^20 ex ante — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@janssenjacob No... — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@AssalehAmer Natrak — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@EmanuelDerman Same as Yom Kippur. It is not a happy holiday. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Ex ante, all 3 are equally likely (assuming a "fair" coin). Even if the coin isn't "fair", A & C are equally likely (memorylessness of the throw). Ex post, Fat Tony wd say "coin is loaded" but that's not what the question was. >36K voted. 21-33% got it wrong. #FooledbyRandomness — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Throw a coin, H=head, T= Tail. Which sequence one is more likely? A={H,T,H,T,H,T,H,T,H,T,T,H,T,H,H,T,T,T,H,H} B… https://t.co/cYOgViS9bI
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@PestoPoppa Mathematica could not solve that integral — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Well, without knowing it, we were using a version of Ramanujan's Master Theorem! https://t.co/ExavLBhPCy — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @Porkchop_EXP: “The characteristic feature of the loser is to bemoan, in general terms, mankind's flaws, biases, contradictions, and irr… — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @nntaleb: @GidMK @akanoego @HomegrownJoan2 @MarcosCarreira You are even more dangerous than I thought (and more of an imbecile). You sti… — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@GidMK @akanoego @HomegrownJoan2 @MarcosCarreira You are even more dangerous than I thought (and more of an imbecile). You still don't get it ! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@bealelab @Paul1Singh Most modern Semitic colors come after objects. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
A full account on this strange integral https://t.co/7bBGQ3PwuY — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
A full account on this strange integral https://t.co/EqQtY4XSlQ — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@andrei_chiffa @GidMK @HomegrownJoan2 @MarcosCarreira @MackayIM A total of 3 papers/follow up derivations, peer-reviewed by professional mathematicians on my criticism of 538, not a blog post by one @andrei_chiffa based on twitter feeds. So I invite @andrei_chiffa to write to the journals with his insight. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @nntaleb: @andrei_chiffa @GidMK @HomegrownJoan2 @MarcosCarreira @MackayIM There is a published scientific paper on my statement (along w… — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@andrei_chiffa @GidMK @HomegrownJoan2 @MarcosCarreira @MackayIM There is a published scientific paper on my statement (along with 3-4 follow ups). Write to the journal as I cannot grasp your gibberish based on twitter posts. The paper is here. https://t.co/hHkbsAaGAW — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@HomegrownJoan2 @MarcosCarreira @GidMK Joan Marcos meant just what you said. It was not panic, but justified cautionary claims. — PolitiTweet.org
