Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Ex ante, all 3 are equally likely (assuming a "fair" coin). Even if the coin isn't "fair", A & C are equally likely (memorylessness of the throw). Ex post, Fat Tony wd say "coin is loaded" but that's not what the question was. >36K voted. 21-33% got it wrong. #FooledbyRandomness — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Throw a coin, H=head, T= Tail. Which sequence one is more likely? A={H,T,H,T,H,T,H,T,H,T,T,H,T,H,H,T,T,T,H,H} B… https://t.co/cYOgViS9bI
