Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb ↗

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Last Checked April 5, 2021

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Fri Apr 02 18:25:28 +0000 2021

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Some people conflated this problem with a sequence of 20 in an open sequence of n>20, which would then necessitate a Markov chain. See the treatment below in a dialogue with the late Maestro Alexander Bogomolny. https://t.co/XFS8L1G0zz — PolitiTweet.org

2) The Markov chain: the expectation is 4 periods for one, 6 for the other. It is ONLY counterintuitive then you ar… https://t.co/oj8QQxCiwg

Posted April 2, 2021

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@skaf777 Same problem. If you assume that n=20, then the prob =2^20 as you are dealing with a specific block. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 2, 2021

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Intellectuals on the left let you know they are on the left. Those on the right usually tell you they are on the center. Those on the center don't tell you anything. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 2, 2021