Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb ↗

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Last Checked April 5, 2021

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Fri Apr 02 18:19:32 +0000 2021

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@skaf777 Same problem. If you assume that n=20, then the prob =2^20 as you are dealing with a specific block. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 2, 2021

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@janssenjacob You are not looking for a sequence, hence a path, but a certain specific ensemble with P=2^20 ex ante — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 2, 2021

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Some people conflated this problem with a sequence of 20 in an open sequence of n>20, which would then necessitate a Markov chain. See the treatment below in a dialogue with the late Maestro Alexander Bogomolny. https://t.co/XFS8L1G0zz — PolitiTweet.org

2) The Markov chain: the expectation is 4 periods for one, 6 for the other. It is ONLY counterintuitive then you ar… https://t.co/oj8QQxCiwg

Posted April 2, 2021