Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ryangrim Kind of related to the similarly annoying convention "TK matters more/less than you think". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Protentialmn @max_silver Yeah I played the WPT Seminole when they had a mask requirement and there were some enforcement issues around masks and some players just circumvented it by always having something to drink. Nice thing about a vax requirement is that you don't have enforce mid-tournament. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@max_silver @Protentialmn I guess I'm just thinking if I'm the sort of person who would be deterred from playing by a vax requirement, I'd probably also be deterred by stringent masks + testing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@max_silver @Protentialmn Kinda seems like a vaccine requirement + some well thought out protocols if players test/appear positive mid-tournamemt would just be easier? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DGisSERIOUS It's a great city, hotels in August have always been hard though. You could look at Airbnb, my folks go to Maine every year and have generally found that the more attractive option. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DGisSERIOUS This time of year, probably in some Holiday Inn near the airport that still costs $259 a night. Not a lot of hotel capacity relative to the summer tourist season. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's some real horseshoe theory on people who give a shit about Obama's birthday bash. https://t.co/WQMQNFDtHc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you think 1 House seat (actually more like 0.3 or 0.5 since Kind was neither sure to win nor is his replacement sure to lose) makes a huge difference in the Democrats' chances of retaining the House, you're not doing the math right. The range of possible outcomes is very wide. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Not clear that the NY Democratic primary electorate is lefter than average (relative to other D primary electorates). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is different from vacancies from the Senate, where appointees have a pretty weak re-election record. Gubernatorial replacements are elected officials who come up through the line of succession (usually as lieutenant governors) and have experience & relationships. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@galendruke Galen. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Among 13 governors* to take over after resignations since 2008, 10 subsequently won election to their own term. 1 lost his primary and 2 didn't seek re-election. * Excluding when Maggie Hassan resigned a few days early to begin her Senate term. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm I was just thinking about who might win if it was say AOC against a Charlie Baker type. But yeah if it's a Trumpy Republican the Democratic primary is presumably winner-take-all. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There will be a lot of press coverage of people who are more famous, but probably Hochul is the most likely winner of the NY gubernatorial primary next year. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

NYC > DC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @oliverdarcy: And there it is. Cuomo says he will resign as governor of New York. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron @sailorrooscout @thepcmaster It's maybe also worth keeping in mind that Pfizer and Moderna weren't distributed through identical channels. In NYC, city-run sites used Moderna, state-run sites used Pfizer, and there are plausibly some differences in who wound up at each one. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @mattyglesias I'd be worried about more restrictions if I lived in Los Angeles or San Francisco. Less in New York, which has been meaningfully less stringent. And I think it's more likely than not that some liberal districts will go back to virtual learning for a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @mattyglesias But there's been a lot of goalpost-shifting throughout the pandemic. And there might have been more if there wasn't resistance in the US to certain types of restrictions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @mattyglesias I mean, I don't *think* it's being paranoid to wonder whether school and business closures and limits on gatherings could be reimposed? We're starting to see some shaming again for people participating in social activities, even if e.g. vaccinated and outdoors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias At the same time, while I personally think policy in the Northeastern US has been pretty optimal (better than California/France on the one hand or Sweden/Texas OTOH) I think one can argue it's been optimal in part because there's some intrinsic resistance to lockdowns in the US. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias The other day I was getting lunch and a guy down the bar from me was a tourist from Texas who expressed shock that indoor dining was already open in NYC. And I'm like "dude, it's been open since February!" Even NYC hasn't been very locked down except for spring 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Granted, you don't tend to hear that form of the argument very often from Republicans. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There are credible arguments that liberals overestimate the effectiveness of lockdowns and underestimate their costs (importantly, primarily non-economic costs: mental health, learning loss, social ties, etc.) that don't have much to do with the risks of COVID being exaggerated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@normative IDK but I wonder if topology is not more the exception than the rule. In the fields where I have genuine expertise (e.g. election forecasting) I'd tend to think less of an expert who made a statement like that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Lately I've seen people ask why the US numbers don't look more like the UK, which had a surge in cases recently but comparatively few deaths. But US states that have vaccination rates ~similar to the UK actually have fewer deaths than the UK, though the numbers lag & may rise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seeing a bigger gap in deaths than cases is exactly what you'd expect given how the vaccines work under Delta (pretty good against cases but VERY good against severe outcomes) but still interesting to see it in the data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Over the past week, the 10 least vaccinated states are averaging 3.0x per cases per capita than the 10 most vaccinated states, 4.3x more hospitalizations per capita, and 6.5x more deaths per capita. https://t.co/i8ElZQJZ5p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

IDK, but I think a point that could be emphasized more in public health messaging (given how little testing the US is doing) is simply to encourage vaccinated people to get tested when they feel sick and stay home until they get a negative result. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good thread and makes a key point. If you *randomly* sample people, vaccinated folks *do* seem to have lower viral loads. Otherwise you're getting a sample of people who self-select to be tested, usually because they feel sick. — PolitiTweet.org