Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2021

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Tue Aug 10 17:41:14 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Not clear that the NY Democratic primary electorate is lefter than average (relative to other D primary electorates). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is different from vacancies from the Senate, where appointees have a pretty weak re-election record. Gubernatorial replacements are elected officials who come up through the line of succession (usually as lieutenant governors) and have experience & relationships. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you think 1 House seat (actually more like 0.3 or 0.5 since Kind was neither sure to win nor is his replacement sure to lose) makes a huge difference in the Democrats' chances of retaining the House, you're not doing the math right. The range of possible outcomes is very wide. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2021