Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Unlike a lot of things that people speculate about there is pretty strong empirical evidence that voters do care about inflation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo I think any sort of reporting or analysis would reveal that you're pretty clearly in the majority and I think it says something about high-prestige journalism (or its audience?) that many articles operate on the opposite premise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen New York — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @conorsen It's hard to calibrate normal here. In the summer it felt 120% back to normal if that makes sense (remember going to a Knights game in June with no mask/vaccine/capacity requirement and everyone screaming and thinking "OK, we're gonna have another wave"). A bit more subdued now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @conorsen I dunno, I've been in Vegas for the past month which has an indoor mask mandate and occasional weird labor/supply shortages that probably wouldn't have been as common pre-pandemic. But it fundamentally feels pretty normal because people's anxiety level isn't that high. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen There's also some irony in that liberal elites are/were the most insistent that we couldn't get back to normal because of Delta when ~80% of people are/were already back to normal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BallouxFrancois I'd say if you find it puzzling then you understand it pretty well. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This dynamic is important IMO. As it becomes increasingly tiresome to participate in the political discourse (e.g. on Twitter) a lot of people will drop out of the conversation and that makes elite discourse even more detached from how a broader cross-section of voters think. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a corollary, Democrats probably should consider strategic adjustments in response to last night—exactly how they should change it and on what issues is a harder question, of course—rather than just attributing it to a poor national environment. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, it's true electoral trends are thermostatic (i.e. they tend to break against the governing party) in somewhat predictable ways. But part of that is because parties adjust their strategies after defeats, in e.g. the way the GOP did in Virginia that it didn't in California. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This differs, by the way, from the California recall, where red areas got redder and blue areas got bluer or at least didn't shift much from 2018/2020. Of note, Elder was a Trumpist candidate while Youngkin and Ciattarelli were not exactly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think this follows. In most recent elections, Democrats lost ground in rural areas but gained in the suburbs. Last night, they lost ground in the suburbs too. That's different and it's worth asking why (and, yes, the answers are probably complicated and multi-causal). https://t.co/DJsL4rAIcV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Entirely plausible scenario is that GOP has a bunch of good outcomes in 2021/2022 without Trump but then nominates Trump anyway and has a bad 2024. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn "In Virginia" a little superfluous here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My basic, boring take though is that Virginia probably won't affect the 2022 midterm odds very much (dreary outlook for Dems either way, TBH). It'll mostly impact *how* 2022 is contested and what political elites argue about. https://t.co/AifCHV8hJJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Up at @FiveThirtyEight, liveblog of Virginia and other elections tonight: https://t.co/AifCHV8hJJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: .@NateSilver538: “Democrats still have a shot to squeeze some climate-related policy out of their spending bill. But barri… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Extrapolating election outcomes from partial returns is a very hard problem, and becoming harder in many ways, and one that your average political reporter or cable news pundit has no training in. The Needle isn't the only approach. But you need some rigor, not just to wing it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Needle, with its optimism on Nov. 3 that Biden could win in Georgia, in some ways broke the story that Biden was going to win in 2020 and was *way* ahead of the curve of other media coverage, as was also the case for Trump's victory in 2016. So how have we "moved beyond it?". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There is an exact walking speed for "the security team is responding to an incident at a casino/hotel/nightclub/etc. without wanting to create *too* much of a sense of alarm" that I'm not sure human beings really use under any other circumstances. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AriEngelPoker Fun to play with you and glad you got to witness what was probably my worst-played hour of the WSOP so far. Good luck! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren Yeah the WSOP events are held in humongous conference center ballrooms. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jeremyfaust No testing requirement. Masks required in the hallways/common areas though not at the tables themselves. So it's not a super strict set of protocols, but a vaccine requirement (which is enforced at least somewhat seriously) seems to do a fair bit of good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's now 4 weeks into the World Series of Poker and, fingers crossed, but so far a good example of a vaccine requirement working. None of the events have been disrupted by COVID, cases are still steady/declining in Clark Co., and anecdotally not hearing about many cases either. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: “Betting markets give former Pres. Trump around a 40% chance of being the GOP nominee in 2024 and, frankly, I think that’s… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: “Voters get particularly motivated when you're potentially taking away something they thought they already had,” @NateSilv… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So... ended up in 2nd place, which somehow feels worse than 3rd place, but *does* pay $152,000. Congrats to my opponent John Monnette, who played a great heads-up match and really earned the bracelet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Made my first World Series of Poker final table! Tough lineup and I'm 6th/10 in chips so keeping expectations modest but very much looking forward to it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: 🎧 New pod 🎧 @NateSilver538, @maggiekb1 and I talked to @ScottGottliebMD about why he thinks the US wasn't prepared for COV… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @joshtpm: @NateSilver538 the vast majority of reporters know no political history beyond a one or two decade time horizon and that has a… — PolitiTweet.org