Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 19, 2021

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Wed Nov 03 17:18:39 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This differs, by the way, from the California recall, where red areas got redder and blue areas got bluer or at least didn't shift much from 2018/2020. Of note, Elder was a Trumpist candidate while Youngkin and Ciattarelli were not exactly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think this follows. In most recent elections, Democrats lost ground in rural areas but gained in the suburbs. Last night, they lost ground in the suburbs too. That's different and it's worth asking why (and, yes, the answers are probably complicated and multi-causal). https://t.co/DJsL4rAIcV — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, it's true electoral trends are thermostatic (i.e. they tend to break against the governing party) in somewhat predictable ways. But part of that is because parties adjust their strategies after defeats, in e.g. the way the GOP did in Virginia that it didn't in California. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021