Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 19, 2021

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Wed Nov 03 17:30:02 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, it's true electoral trends are thermostatic (i.e. they tend to break against the governing party) in somewhat predictable ways. But part of that is because parties adjust their strategies after defeats, in e.g. the way the GOP did in Virginia that it didn't in California. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This differs, by the way, from the California recall, where red areas got redder and blue areas got bluer or at least didn't shift much from 2018/2020. Of note, Elder was a Trumpist candidate while Youngkin and Ciattarelli were not exactly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a corollary, Democrats probably should consider strategic adjustments in response to last night—exactly how they should change it and on what issues is a harder question, of course—rather than just attributing it to a poor national environment. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021