Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi I mean, people who are completely immunologically naive—who are by far the most vulnerable to severe outcomes according to that chart—are by definition unvaccinated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That brief moment last spring when the Knicks and Nets were two of the top 4 seeds and it looked like New York Really Was Turning Into Basketball Mecca was fun. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @Noahpinion Their opinion section has gotten less stodgy, I guess, but mostly that's just because it's gotten better and they have a much more interesting range of columnists now. But their "news analysis" pieces have always been chock-full of hot takes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @Noahpinion Yeah, again just sticking to election coverage, if anything the older stuff (say you read a random dispatch from the 1984 campaign) is worse in that regard. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion That's a great (and accurate) way to describe the NYT today, although I think it may have been true for a long time. Certainly was true when I worked there 10 years ago. Also has been true of their elections coverage for many, many years. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's this whole genre of article that's like "Think you'll ever be able to stop worrying about COVID? Think again!". When you see polls showing that most people want to "move on" it may be this sort of sentiment that they're reacting to. https://t.co/z29M8t8Sp2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I mean the EC probably has a 3 point R bias and the House might now have a 1-point D bias. So what are the chances the popular vote ends up somewhere between R+1 and D+3? Maybe 25%? Though I'm ignoring incumbency and other complications. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Entirely plausible outcome for 2024 given the results of redistricting is that Democrats regain* control of the House while losing the presidency. * or retain, if they keep it in 2022 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SopanDeb @Kungu_NBA He can and very likely will be better, but one issue is that even the high-end version isn't *that* good. It's not like AD or something who's having a down year too but where the upside is a top 10 player. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SopanDeb @Kungu_NBA The advanced metrics (which can be wrong!) really do not like the Randle contract at this point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I agree with the conclusion but there's also a particular problem that some public health experts tried to play philosopher-king based on concerns about "global vaccine equity" instead of focusing on the question of whether boosters were safe and effective. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @jbarro The sample is limited to people who took a test. So that creates a sampling bias issue in the SAME direction. People who wear masks probably have a lower threshold for getting tested (e.g. with few/no symptoms) and are therefore less likely to test positive, other things equal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @chrislhayes Well and the Scandinavian countries to some degree. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I think we have to deconstruct this, no? —Greater vaccine uptake is pretty much a win-win. —Other NPIs (especially lockdowns) generally do involve tradeoffs (including but not limited to economic tradeoffs). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @galendruke good use of polling? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias For me it's like: There are a lot of things pulling the mainstream media to the left, but there are some restraints and counterforces. Would the journalism be more persuasive *to the average swing voter* in the absence of those constraints? I don't know but I tend to doubt it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias When I hear these proposals they don't seem to wrestle with the fact that while there may be "no Democratic equivalent to Fox News", the mainstream media is nonetheless pretty left-leaning (as you're getting at here), though in complicated ways more so on some issues than others. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan That's far more sporting. It's hard to go back though once you get hooked on a certain opening.... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan I think playing 10 entirely distinct letters for the first 2 clues (my current go-to is ALIEN:SHORT) is the more efficient version of this and generally allows you to avoid burning the 3rd clue. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC @JamesSurowiecki In survey data there's basically no correlation between COVID caution and age (even though there probably *should* be). Nor is there very much in my personal friend circles FWIW but the broader point is that one should be careful about generalizing from one's friends. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC @JamesSurowiecki I'm also not talking about people who are temporarily being more cautious under Omicron. Those folks will start going out again. The 15% estimate comes from survey and behavioral data of people who were still being quite cautious pre-Omicron. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC @JamesSurowiecki Very few people I know fall into that 15% even though demographically more of them should (i.e. most of my friends are college-educated liberals). So I think there are some pretty subtle cultural factors here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @MarkHarrisNYC I'm pretty agnostic on timing. But not sure I agree with "already in the process of happening". Most people (even in NYC) are going out already. But I think there's a group of people (~15% of the population, mostly college-edu in blue states) who feel like they need permission. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @MarkHarrisNYC Other than the vaccine entry requirement, it's voluntary. I'm arguing that one thing Biden could do would be to actively encourage vaccinated people in places with low case rates to go out and resume their social lives, as e.g. Eric Adams has come close to doing at times. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC I mean I live here, and there's also a lot of data on this (e.g. data on public transit usage or restaurant bookings or what not), and NYC is still considerably less lively than usual, even though Omicron cases have plummeted and the city has a very high vaccination rate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarkHarrisNYC Who's insisting that NYC is in any form of lockdown? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes @mattyglesias But, yeah, I do think people should reckon with the high death tolls and explicitly try to do cost-benefit analysis. Sometimes people like me who think a) the *costs* of restrictions are high or b) that they aren't that effective make the mistake of downplaying the death toll. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I forget who pointed this out (@mattyglesias?) but generally life was more disrupted in blue states than red states during the Omicron wave even though red states generally had as many/more hospitalizations. I think people have a fair amount of agency here to make (hard) choices. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As others have noted, saying a lot of people are still dying from COVID (awful) or that the pandemic isn't over (true) is not a policy, nor is it obvious what policy it necessitates, especially given restrictions are most likely to be enacted in places where they're least needed. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Chris is always thoughtful but I don't really understand this "the virus gets a vote" idea. We have an extremely wide array of choices (from say the restrictions placed on Yale students on the one hand to South Dakota on the other hand) and they have different costs and benefits. — PolitiTweet.org