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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Also Celsius sucks. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@kabir_here In general candidate effects have been decreasing as partisanship increases. But still sorta interesting that the polls line up better with our "fancy" fundamentals model (which includes candidate effects) than a simpler version based on partisanship alone. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@nathanlgonzales Ok sure but if you perform a more rigorous analysis (e.g. look at every Senate race since 1990, like our model does) you'll find that experience definitely matters in the aggregate. It doesn't mean there are no counterexamples. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The GOP has nominated candidates with no prior electoral experience in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Historically such candidates have poor track records and indeed all are underperforming in polls relative to how a "generic" Republican might do. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
When you put out an internal poll that shows you down 5 and the other guy at almost 50%, that would tend to suggest you're in a lot of trouble (regardless of messaging, which is something both sides get a chance to do). — PolitiTweet.org
Burgess Everett @burgessev
GOP poll has Kelly 49, Masters 44 but has race basically tied after reading GOP messaging on reconciliation bill pe… https://t.co/bUp035woRV
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I mean, we're in the middle of a primary season where Republican electeds who tried to stand up to Trump, like Peter Meijer, are getting their butts kicked. So courage, in the rather tangible sense of being willing to lose one's job, would indeed seem to be part of the problem. — PolitiTweet.org
Thomas Zimmer @tzimmer_history
As aggressive Trumpism rapidly spreads within the GOP, we hear a lot about how a “lack of courage” is supposedly pr… https://t.co/vpYxZhhIlg
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, the thing about Democratic meddling in MI-3 is how little upside there was. It might modestly increase their chances to win one of 435 House seats for two years during a time at which they probably won't control the House anyway. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@timgill924 Just take the L, it was a pretty good bet that I had no personal connection to Kansas but you were wrong so just own up to it dude. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@timgill924 Yeah my partner is from Kansas and so I have a lot of family from KS and MO and maybe you ought to be a bit less presumptuous. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If the result holds a very big deal. Not a huge surprise based on pre-election polls and Kansas is *slightly* less socially conservative than people assume. But still, confirms that the Dobbs decision was deeply unpopular and will motivate the midterm vote. — PolitiTweet.org
Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT
…and there’s Johnson County with a 50K+ early vote margin for “no” on the Kansas abortion ballot measure. Smart Ka… https://t.co/rtekblfOb6
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @AlexSamuelsx5: It’s that time again! @FiveThirtyEight is live-blogging! Follow along: https://t.co/lzV9WThIo9 😎 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattZeitlin Should be used for bad NBA trades TBH, e.g. the Westbrook trade was "Pelinka's folly" (or maybe LeBron's folly depending on who you ask). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @galendruke: I was out last week, but a lot happened (an assertion @NateSilver538 & I debate on the pod lol) ANYWAY... we discuss: 1)… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So basically Eric Hosmer is Kyrsten Sinema. — PolitiTweet.org
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Enormous pressure on Hosmer to approve deal, and he might get something more out of it beyond the 3 yrs/$39M he is… https://t.co/Z9MiDVCUYQ
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@SeanTrende Lol approximately 6 people are going to get this reference and I am one of them. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, this seems right. The chance of triggering a *major* escalation (perhaps as a result of an accident or misunderstanding) might be low but it's certainly not zero and the consequences would be very, very bad. https://t.co/lzldYE6W9S https://t.co/Quod3IgNg6 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jbarro Yeah a 0% < x < 5% of provoking a *major* international incident seems pretty bad unless there's a clear rationale for the trip. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@lymanstoneky Yeah, there could easily be a mechanism whereby people with higher moral sophistication or greater general intelligence understand that there is no moral harm from lying *in this particular context* and are therefore more likely to be utilitarian *in this particular context*. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@EricaGrieder It's more purple and the main driver of COVID-related policies is partisanship. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattZeitlin Not sure what you're talking about. The two groups of people primarily responsible for communicating the state of the economy to the public are Uber drivers and Bodega Guys. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Other than academic economists and financial reporters, nobody had a particularly strong opinion about how a recession should be defined until about a week ago. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
BA.5 in the next country in alphabetical order, Austria. Stop cherrypicking data. https://t.co/zTpzzlrjbY — PolitiTweet.org
Eric Topol @EricTopol
BA.5 in Australia https://t.co/Abla5s5DIU
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The major parties in the US are *not* very ideologically coherent and *that's* what makes it difficult for 3rd parties. Rs and Ds are efficient at having claimed electoral real estate, often at the expense of principle, so there aren't many empty plots for 3rd parties to grab. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ryxcommar Gonna start a soft rock band called Mild Discontent With The Managerial Class. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@markos I've been writing about the impact of Dobbs for weeks now way before it became the conventional wisdom that it had changed the race. Do your homework. https://t.co/8QQaMoyhdI — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One thing about the Senate this cycle is that there are no sitting ducks for Republicans like say Jones in 2020 or Heitkamp in 2018. We have the best GOP chances in NV and GA but even those are Biden states where D incumbents have led in most polls so far. https://t.co/jRBDbh7Ah8 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@EricTopol Give me a break, cherrypicking data has become your whole shtick. It's unscientific, it's going to make the public numb if there *are* future variants that are really bad, and you should stop doing it. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The *something* is probably in part (or indeed mostly) Dobbs, but there are quite a few factors that have come to look better for Democrats over the past few weeks, including their legislative agenda. https://t.co/QXrl5q5AIK — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It seems clear that there's Something Happening Here and movement toward Democrats in recent polls isn't just statistical noise. https://t.co/1lMKlec04Y — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Here's what non-cherrypicked data looks like. BA.5 looks better than some variants, worse than others. But it doesn't particularly stand out and it's certainly not causing the massive scale of destruction that we saw with variants like Delta. https://t.co/guRD1Nw61Q — PolitiTweet.org
