Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 10, 2022

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Wed Aug 03 19:58:52 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The GOP has nominated candidates with no prior electoral experience in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Historically such candidates have poor track records and indeed all are underperforming in polls relative to how a "generic" Republican might do. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 3, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When you put out an internal poll that shows you down 5 and the other guy at almost 50%, that would tend to suggest you're in a lot of trouble (regardless of messaging, which is something both sides get a chance to do). — PolitiTweet.org

GOP poll has Kelly 49, Masters 44 but has race basically tied after reading GOP messaging on reconciliation bill pe… https://t.co/bUp035woRV

Posted Aug. 3, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nathanlgonzales Ok sure but if you perform a more rigorous analysis (e.g. look at every Senate race since 1990, like our model does) you'll find that experience definitely matters in the aggregate. It doesn't mean there are no counterexamples. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 3, 2022