Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 9, 2022

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Tue Aug 02 02:01:57 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Yeah a 0% < x < 5% of provoking a *major* international incident seems pretty bad unless there's a clear rationale for the trip. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 2, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lymanstoneky Yeah, there could easily be a mechanism whereby people with higher moral sophistication or greater general intelligence understand that there is no moral harm from lying *in this particular context* and are therefore more likely to be utilitarian *in this particular context*. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this seems right. The chance of triggering a *major* escalation (perhaps as a result of an accident or misunderstanding) might be low but it's certainly not zero and the consequences would be very, very bad. https://t.co/lzldYE6W9S https://t.co/Quod3IgNg6 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 2, 2022