Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@asymmetricinfo There are also a lot of in-between possibilities, e.g. that it's "just" about document-handling "for now" but this is the first among several steps that are either planned out or are at least reasonably likely to proceed pending contingencies. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Popular nonacademic (nonfiction) books are more like: 1. A Vivid Anecdote Demonstrating An Intractable Problem 2. A Half-Dozen Variations Demonstrating How Entrenched The Problem Is 3. Conclusion: 10 Easy Solutions To The Intractable Problem! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"This must be X, because Y would have been a really dumb strategy" is an argument that often presupposes too much about people's ability to avoid really dumb strategies. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this was an exceptionally misleading pair of Tweets from @marceelias and it was bad to see some big-name accounts retweeting them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@adamdavidson The most knowledgeable climate people generally seem to think the bill is quite good. Not just political types. I'm not really sure what you're talking about half the time anymore. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ESYudkowsky Might be true (dine **outdoors** with your friends would have been a **much** better policy) but directionally I think the elite consensus was pretty wrong and I tend to be sympathetic to clumsily-implemented policies that are directionally right and non-consensus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ESYudkowsky Not sure this is a great example though because the UK policy he mentions went strongly against the elite consensus and IMO technocrats vastly underestimated the cost of people losing social lives and in-person social connections. Whether it was a good policy in the moment, IDK. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I'm always amused by the tendency of technology reporters or "disinformation reporters" to 'splain "intrenet culture" as though we're not all on the internet all the fricking time. It's like a food reporter piously explaining what a hot dog is. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some people are happier to lose than to than win. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah and also if you're not selecting people with electoral experience, you're usually picking people who have some notoriety for other reasons, i.e. "celebrities". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Or how responsive SCOTUS is to electoral feedback. Like, I think Obergefell is somewhat less likely to be overturned after the Kansas result. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen It also yields some risk to Republicans that they'll control two legs of the trifecta but not the House. But the more they're relying on the Supreme Court to achieve policy goals, the less that matters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a more technical, model question here too about whether you should consider the baseline to be that the popular vote is even in a neutral year. The equilibrium is probably that Ds usually win the popular vote but win the Senate < 50% of the time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This probably the right strategy, too. You hold the Senate often enough to ensure a conservative, often activist Supreme Court majority, you mostly get what you want even if you don't win every election (and lose some winnable ones). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure Shor would disagree, but it's important to note that Republicans are cashing in the current bias of the Senate map for *some combination* of electoral victories and policy victories rather than purely trying to max out their number of seats. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@LFFriedman Also no mention of Manchin's electoral incentives and how unpopular Biden is in his state, how different the situation would be if a Republican held his seat instead, abd how his actions in other areas (e.g. voting for green-friendly infrastructure) have been helpful to climate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@LFFriedman The article, particularly in these two passages (and in your words and not just the sources'), places a huge amount of blame for the future global climate situation on Manchin specifically. Little if any mention of other Democrats (e.g. Sinema), Republicans, other countries etc. https://t.co/VT5ZAmMzH8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It also leans real hard into a style of journalism that thinks of itself as "telling hard truths with unvarnished language" but is actually full of hyperbole and dubious assertions while ignoring e.g. Manchin's electoral incentives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We need a day of national reckoning for the take that Joe Manchin "would be the one man who single-handedly doomed humanity" (yes, Podesta literally said that and the tone of the article strongly suggests that the reporters agree). https://t.co/0a8MOzdPRY https://t.co/CO9dIZeKz8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BallouxFrancois Well, kids don't get a vote so the question is under what circumstances adults are most likely to act with their best interests in mind. At first glance a lot of counties that kept schools closed have high political polarization. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah look I'm all on board with the targeted, harm-reduction approach to monkeypox but it's completely and utterly inconsistent with the approach we took to COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave I'm just saying individual experiences can be streaky or they can reflect people's flying patterns (I'm mostly flying to warm-weather destinations which tend to have fewer problems than others) and also people tend only to share bad experiences, so best to use non-anecdotal data! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave Anecdotally, I fly a lot and it doesn't seem that different from pre-pandemic. Non-anecdotally, there's a big increase in customer complaints but *not* one in objective measures of underperformance (e.g. cancelations), which cuts a lot of different ways. https://t.co/Hmx3wNhLiX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Bad deal for DeSantis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This isn't an accident, of course. It's one of the consequences of being in a party dominated by Trump. Republicans with traditional qualifications might avoid running in the first place, or they lose their primaries. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The lack of elected experience among GOP senate and gubernatorial candidates is really quite something. Bunch of first-time candidates in key races, and such candidates often perform poorly. https://t.co/XLhtXknpLa https://t.co/tMNaR2MU9s — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jayrosen_nyu There are lots of surveys of experts asking about the monthly jobs report. It's frankly a hard thing to predict and the forecasts are often wrong. But it's perfectly reasonable to do a prewrite on this basis and not some sign that journalists have the narrative baked in. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's a somewhat rough analogy but other things equal it would be like hiring a 40-year-old who has never had gainful employment vs. one who has. Probably some biases there but usually also some signal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you want to get technical it's probably mostly survivorship bias, e.g. that candidates who have won election to something have demonstrated a certain degree of political acumen and viability that I'm not sure Walker, Masters, Oz, etc. have. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@S2catz @mattyglesias Because for normal human stuff 100 means hot and we don't care about the boiling point because by that point we're all dead. — PolitiTweet.org