Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 13, 2022

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Thu Aug 04 02:12:51 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's a somewhat rough analogy but other things equal it would be like hiring a 40-year-old who has never had gainful employment vs. one who has. Probably some biases there but usually also some signal. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you want to get technical it's probably mostly survivorship bias, e.g. that candidates who have won election to something have demonstrated a certain degree of political acumen and viability that I'm not sure Walker, Masters, Oz, etc. have. — PolitiTweet.org

Is it experience or pre-existing name ID and fundraising infrastructure? Because those are different things. In t… https://t.co/sI4sc4tkem

Posted Aug. 4, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jayrosen_nyu There are lots of surveys of experts asking about the monthly jobs report. It's frankly a hard thing to predict and the forecasts are often wrong. But it's perfectly reasonable to do a prewrite on this basis and not some sign that journalists have the narrative baked in. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2022