Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 19, 2022

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Mon Aug 08 01:03:04 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen It also yields some risk to Republicans that they'll control two legs of the trifecta but not the House. But the more they're relying on the Supreme Court to achieve policy goals, the less that matters. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 8, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a more technical, model question here too about whether you should consider the baseline to be that the popular vote is even in a neutral year. The equilibrium is probably that Ds usually win the popular vote but win the Senate < 50% of the time. — PolitiTweet.org

This probably the right strategy, too. You hold the Senate often enough to ensure a conservative, often activist Su… https://t.co/6DzTAZ9eFE

Posted Aug. 8, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Or how responsive SCOTUS is to electoral feedback. Like, I think Obergefell is somewhat less likely to be overturned after the Kansas result. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 8, 2022