Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Would strongly take the under on inevitable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Sinema trifecta. You have to work very hard to have negative numbers among Democrats, Republicans and independents. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 Yeah it's very Peak 2022 Twitter that people aren't even making a pretense of engaging in a substantive way with his question but are extremely confident that his vibes are bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You know you're having a pretty good season when you have 2 doubles, a walk and 3 runs scored in 5 plate appearances, your team leads 14-2, and the fans seem mildly disappointed. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Could Aaron Judge beat Bonds's single-season HR record (73)? It's very unlikely. OTOH, Judge did have a 69 PA stretch from July 14 to Aug. 1 in which he hit 13 HR. If he hits 13 more HR, he'd tie Bonds at 73. Judge figures to have another ~70 PA left if he plays every day. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The one Senate race where the polling average has shifted toward Republicans is Wisconsin. But that was a race where (i) there hadn't been many polls and (ii) Barnes (D) was running well ahead of "fundamentals". So this may just be reversion to the mean. https://t.co/wwFJBbHlsA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're getting a lot more polling since Labor Day (good) but one consequence of that is that it becomes a lot easier for people to weave together a narrative based on selected data points. To me, it really doesn't look like much has changed overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. Emergency 2. Shock 3. Connecticut 4. Despair 5. Hawaii https://t.co/OURMFzbaNj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NateSilver538: @helaineolen One other thing I've noticed too is restaurants turning over tables more quickly (all your food may come at… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@helaineolen One other thing I've noticed too is restaurants turning over tables more quickly (all your food may come at once, less tolerance for lingering after dessert, etc.) That seems like an extremely sensible strategy under difficult circumstances, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@helaineolen Yeah, for sure. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@helaineolen Probably a minor factor but I got used to eating earlier pre-vaccines because I was mostly sticking to outdoor dining and sometimes those heat lamps weren't going to cut it for a crisp, windy 8 PM evening. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

~60% chance that one of our two "big" forecasts (House or Senate control) is wrong. I'm sure people will be very forgiving of this after the fact, though! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@VitalikButerin One thing that gets weird is I might know the views of online "strangers" (who are prolific writers, etc/) more so than some IRL friends. So I don't know who counts. I'm also not sure if we're allowed to extrapolate if we don't know someone's views but can make good guesses. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@VitalikButerin I think people are overestimating their degree of contrarianism since areas of disagreement tend to be highlighted relative to areas of agreement. If you know 150 people and there's a 50/50 chance you agree on each issue, the most-aligned one will be at ~80% thru chance alone. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our first live show in 3 years! Come join us in DC on the evening of Oct. 25. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I gave DALL-E Mini the prompt of "zero covid paradise, in a steampunk style" and TBH it does look kind of awesome. https://t.co/9jJV0iSL30 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wish he'd paired it with a more specific message about boosters. But it's not at all clear that a public health message that remains on "war footing" would persuade more to get boosted. Per polls, most people are burned out on COVID precautions. A gentler "ask" might help. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, coverage of Biden's "pandemic is over" statement has been kind of obtuse. What he tried to communicate is that "COVID is still an issue, but we're at the point where it no longer needs to dominate our lives". He's not trying to offer a technical definition of "pandemic". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@wwwojtekk Personally, I'm pretty happy about the news that tacos make you thin, so I'm not going to waste time thinking about potential confounders. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conor64 I haven't traveled intentionally much lately, but was surprised at the near-total lack of masking in Paris and Montreal. One theory I heard (stealing this from a Euro friend) is that higher societal trust makes it easier to roll on COVID precautions but *also* to roll them off. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, if we're being honest, putting everything in the toss-up category is lame. I doubt any of the people who have it at toss-up would bet any of their own money on Masters at 50/50-ish odds. https://t.co/Pn7YpRI2lO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Five polls out since labor day are Kelly +1, Kelly +20, Kelly +6, Kelly +2 and Kelly +15. So, yes, lots of disagreement but averages out to a pretty big lead for Kelly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The cynical view is that public discourse about COVID precautions is most impassioned when people can use it to signal what "side" they're on, and boosters fall into the awkward middle ground between team We Must Do More and team Totally Over It. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hard to think of more of a pot-calling-the-kettle-black situation than Gavin Newsom calling someone else attention-starved. Like DeSantis, he's trying to run a 2024 presidental campaign while dozens of his colleagues are in tight midterm races. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias "Mixed" implies that this kind of prognostication has sometimes been good which it basically never has (except maybe in Nevada). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I also think it's odd that Aaron Judge isn't even more famous. I feel like I should ~instantly know whenever he hits a HR at this point and there are some times when I won't until I specifically check, even though I follow a lot of sports people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not gonna do a thread on this, otherwise I wouldn't have written the fairly long column. But I do think—with some 2022-relevant caveats—that "polls are sometimes inaccurate, BUT the direction of bias is hard to predict" remains a fairly good assumption. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

https://t.co/uca1i8l7DD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Please yes. Wynn Manhattan would have the best poker games in the Western Hampshire. — PolitiTweet.org