Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 5, 2022

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Tue Sep 20 19:41:07 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@VitalikButerin One thing that gets weird is I might know the views of online "strangers" (who are prolific writers, etc/) more so than some IRL friends. So I don't know who counts. I'm also not sure if we're allowed to extrapolate if we don't know someone's views but can make good guesses. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@VitalikButerin I think people are overestimating their degree of contrarianism since areas of disagreement tend to be highlighted relative to areas of agreement. If you know 150 people and there's a 50/50 chance you agree on each issue, the most-aligned one will be at ~80% thru chance alone. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

~60% chance that one of our two "big" forecasts (House or Senate control) is wrong. I'm sure people will be very forgiving of this after the fact, though! — PolitiTweet.org

Also a reminder that 538 publishes *combined* forecast odds, and there's a 58% of chance of either Dems or Reps swe… https://t.co/t00ZU2TgeG

Posted Sept. 20, 2022