Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias A lot of theoretical questions around susceptibility, herd immunity, heterogeneous transmission rates etc. are becoming ... not so theoretical now, as they are being pushed to their boundaries in the U.S. and other countries. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the behavioral data, there is LOTS of fatigue with social distancing. Some recent signs people have started to be more careful in the ~1/2 of the country with bad outbreaks right now. Still, that may not be sustainable over the long run. https://t.co/32iSFYgSGd https://t.co/LACJ7RNHcq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course if you frame it as "economy vs. protect us from COVID", people will mostly say "protect us". But, virtually every dimension of people's lives has been disrupted (work, school, family, recreation, friendships) so that may not reflect the situation they face personally. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The way people are actually behaving re: lockdowns suggests something rather different than the polls. In fact, I think the thesis that "lockdowns are not politically sustainable" is looking pretty good. (I was pretty agnostic on this point, so not tooting my own horn, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It sometimes gets taken for granted that Republicans only get **5-10%** of the Black vote. You almost never see margins like that in American politics. Here's a great @ClareMalone piece on the history of the GOP's relationship with Black voters: — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm We have Democrats up 8 on the generic ballot. https://t.co/7mfucyRAFG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other dynamic re: COVID. To the extent people let their guard down, that's what can problems in the form of surges etc. Frankly, that's what seems to have happened now. You ignore it, and it forces itself into our lives again. So that makes it uniquely persistent as an issue. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So while it's possible the protests will fade, or become less popular (they're currently fairly popular) I think it's less likely that Trump will be able to exploit them, somehow. Maybe a different politician could. But Trump is too clumsy and just isn't trusted on this stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The protests are the least certain. I wouldn't know how to predict their dynamics. Will they still be ongoing in November? Maybe. Will they look the same as today? Maybe not. But voters give Trump TERRIBLE grades on race relations and REALLY dislike his response to the protests. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As for the economy, voters give Trump surprisingly high ratings despite objectively bad data. But that may partly reflect the HUGE stimulus that people got. Disposable income actually went way UP in April, for instance. That will run out without further legislation, though. https://t.co/ZwBzLZaf3I — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The three big stories right now are: COVID, the protests and the economy. COVID is not going away by November. It *could* get better. It could also get worse. But there's likely to be some mix of life still not being very normal, quite a few people getting sick, or both. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing here: usually, you'd expect the election to revert to the mean. And if forced to bet, I'd bet on Biden's margin narrowing, possibly to the point where the Electoral College is competitive. But, it's not clear that the "mean" looks so great for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our average now has Biden ahead by 10.4 points nationally. Polls in June are not super great predictors of elections in November. But that is a big lead. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/7AcnZqBERp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One of the dilemmas that should be self-evident but doesn't get articulated clearly enough is that you can maintain lockdowns for as long as you like, but once you lift them, cases will begin rising again unless you have a plan for a steady state where R<=1. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I'd continue to emphasize is: this is not really a second wave. The places that got hit hard in March/April are mostly doing OK. It's places that had fewer problems before where cases are spiking. e.g. in Louisiana, things are OK in New Orleans, worrying elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 @COVID19Tracking Worldometers ends their day at like 11pm whereas COVID Tracking ends it at 4pm, so that usually yields some differences. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK, so there was a revision in Delaware that brought up the death toll somewhat. So deaths were ~flat week over week if you adjust for that. Still, the worst report in a while. https://t.co/T6oWAupYnr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 I show 713 based on the @COVID19Tracking data. May have been higher in other sources. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Tuesdays do tend to be bad days, with reporting sometimes being "lumpy" as states clear weekend backlogs. So, there's that. But bad trends overall, and there's no particular reason to expect an abrupt reversal of them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Just no good news here at all. Deaths are up week-over-week, which hasn't been happening much lately. Most cases since May 1, with a big week-over-week increase. And highest positive test rate since May 16, so this surge in cases is NOT just a reflection of more testing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 775 Yesterday: 284 One week ago (6/17): 713 Newly reported cases T: 33K Y: 27K 6/17: 24K Newly reported tests T: 511K Y: 465K 6/17: 467K Positive test rate T: 6.4% Y: 5.8% 6/17: 5.1% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel I think there's actually been some good news on some of the objective parameters of the disease. e.g. The search for a vaccine is going better than I would have thought. But the policy paralysis is worse; and as stuff semi-reopens I think everyone feels stuck between two worlds. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel At least in March there was a clearer sense of what we should be doing about it (i.e. lock down for a while and then figure out the rest later). Now we're in the "figure out the rest later" part and we haven't figured it out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin @notdred @conorsen I am still sort of unsure whether to take the Swedes at their word, because it seem… https://t.co/T2QMry15m2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah, I have no idea, really. It seems perhaps salient that a lot of countries (Mexico, Brazil, Iran, Rus… https://t.co/xX4rrEALsB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Are you sure they're not doing Sweden? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wish people had been more careful before b/c there were a lot of false alarms before driven by increases in testing or other artifacts in the data. We have a real alarm now, however. These numbers adjust for testing and show increases in many states: https://t.co/oAQ2y08bJ5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And to be clear: the CURRENT increase in cases is almost certainly real and NOT just the result of expanding testing. At least not in the South and the West, where cases are rising much faster than tests in a number of states. https://t.co/muQ6ht9uEe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another predictable thing: that Trump would try to discourage testing because he figured out that the media tended to focus on raw case counts without considering test volume (though, the coverage of this has gotten more sophisticated recently IMO). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ameliatd: What could send the economy back into a tailspin? Most of the economists in our @FiveThirtyEight survey say the biggest risk… — PolitiTweet.org