Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 17, 2020

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Wed Jun 24 12:48:34 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The three big stories right now are: COVID, the protests and the economy. COVID is not going away by November. It *could* get better. It could also get worse. But there's likely to be some mix of life still not being very normal, quite a few people getting sick, or both. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing here: usually, you'd expect the election to revert to the mean. And if forced to bet, I'd bet on Biden's margin narrowing, possibly to the point where the Electoral College is competitive. But, it's not clear that the "mean" looks so great for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Our average now has Biden ahead by 10.4 points nationally. Polls in June are not super great predictors of election… https://t.co/syqQ8OGREy

Posted June 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As for the economy, voters give Trump surprisingly high ratings despite objectively bad data. But that may partly reflect the HUGE stimulus that people got. Disposable income actually went way UP in April, for instance. That will run out without further legislation, though. https://t.co/ZwBzLZaf3I — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 24, 2020 Hibernated