Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 17, 2020

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Wed Jun 24 12:21:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our average now has Biden ahead by 10.4 points nationally. Polls in June are not super great predictors of elections in November. But that is a big lead. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/7AcnZqBERp — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One of the dilemmas that should be self-evident but doesn't get articulated clearly enough is that you can maintain lockdowns for as long as you like, but once you lift them, cases will begin rising again unless you have a plan for a steady state where R<=1. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 24, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing here: usually, you'd expect the election to revert to the mean. And if forced to bet, I'd bet on Biden's margin narrowing, possibly to the point where the Electoral College is competitive. But, it's not clear that the "mean" looks so great for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Our average now has Biden ahead by 10.4 points nationally. Polls in June are not super great predictors of election… https://t.co/syqQ8OGREy

Posted June 24, 2020 Hibernated