Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, we'll see. One thing to keep in mind is that even if there is a plateau, it might be an awfully long and bumpy one since states may not be doing enough to actually flatten the curve. Arizona now has an estimated Rt of ~1 for example. You need to be <1 to see cases decrease. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another tinge of OK-ish news: Positive test rates for the past two weeks look pretty flat. Here are the numbers from day to day. Today: 8.3% 8.1% 8.4% 9.9% 8.1% 8.4% 9.9% 8.2% 9.1% 6.5% 8.1% 7.8% 8.3% July 1: 8.4% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Either way, deaths declined relative to last Tuesday—which is good-ish news since that hasn't been happening much lately. But remember, last Tuesday was the first day of heavy reporting after a 3-day weekend. So it's not entirely an apples-to-apples comparison. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* Nominally, deaths increased by 736 today, but Washington state subtracted 39 deaths that it determined occurred by natural causes. So it's perhaps more accurate to think of it as 775 new deaths, minus those 39. https://t.co/wKCvjafPVz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking Newly reported deaths Today: 775* (736 + 39) Yesterday: 327 One week ago (7/7): 922 Newly reported cases T: 63K Y: 58K 7/7: 52K Newly reported tests T: 760K Y: 722K 7/7: 633K Positive test rate: T: 8.3% Y: 8.1% 7/7: 8.2% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One can imagine, for instance, that tests conducted at hospitals have a higher positive test % than walk-in clinics. (That seems to be true in Florida.) So if hospitals happen to make up a larger share of test reporting one day, that state's numbers may fluctuate accordingly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Incidentally it's worth noting how much positive test rates vary from clinic to clinic (from 3% to 24% in major FL clinics, for example). When you see random-seeming fluctuations in a state's positive rate, it may reflect the mix of sites that happened to report on a certain day. https://t.co/LP2oOpGAw9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This likely does *not* affect the statewide numbers that much, in other words. And there's probably degree of this going on in every state. With 100's of test providers, some are going to report incomplete or anomalous data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you read through Florida's very detailed reporting on test results by clinic, the clinics that aren't reporting negative tests (or report very few) are mostly quite small and look as though they represent around ~3% of the positive tests in Florida. https://t.co/2XKq7wZVse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is really bad on the part of OAN. It is literally how campaigns behave (only releasing polls to the public when they show favorable results for their candidate). It is not how legitimate news organizations behave. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That other Florida poll didn't meet our standards for inclusion (and we have inclusive standards) because of the...weirdness in how OAN disclosed the results. But a TIE in a Gravis/OAN Florida poll vs. Biden +10 in a non-OAN Gravis poll fits the pattern. https://t.co/QeyqIi8Ovc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I know it's just 5 polls. But the three polls for OAN are literally some of Trump's best polls during this time period and the two non-OAN polls are literally some of his worst polls. The sponsor shouldn't really have an effect on poll results like that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, Gravis Marketing has released 5 polls of the presidential race in the past several weeks. Three were for OAN (One America News) and three weren't. Here's what they showed: Not for OAN FL: Biden +10 MN: Biden +16 For OAN NC: Trump +3 GA: Trump +3 AZ: Trump +4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NickRiccardi: "Were you better off 9 months ago than you were 4 years ago?" https://t.co/6DZzinqNgk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's hard to speak about any of this with very much confidence since there are long lags in processing tests. And even if cases have plateaued in those states, deaths lag relative to cases and could keep growing. Plus, there are lots of other states to worry about. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Among the "terrible trio": Arizona does seem to show some flattening, which makes sense since it was the earliest of the three to spike. And positive test rates have fallen in Florida, although they're reporting *lots* of cases (and tests). Jury is still out on Texas. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is all very bad relative to what the data looked like a few weeks ago. It is also slightly less bad relative to some recent days. But Mondays (which mostly reflect what happened on Sunday) are often pretty slow. Good that the positive test rate has flattened out a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 327 Yesterday: 476 One week ago (7/6): 242 Newly reported cases T: 58K Y: 61K 7/6: 47K Newly reported tests T: 721K Y: 727K 7/6: 520K Positive test rate T: 8.1% Y: 8.4% 7/6: 9.1% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @sciencecohen: Look at polio. The Salk vaccine was approved in 1955. Sabin vaccine started to have components approved in 1961. I was bo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK, I've got a question for the immunologists on here. Let's say, by the spring, there are 3 FDA-approved vaccines that all operate in different ways. Could a person take all three? Or would that not be advisable until the interactions, etc., were studied? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ameliatd: Sometimes I write a story for @FiveThirtyEight where the words are just dressing for a fantastic chart. The Supreme Court's o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To illustrate the point: a prediction market estimates that 99.7% of people who had COVID will still be immune after 6 months. If that were true (have no idea) would be pretty good news but you'd ALSO expect to see reports of reinfection among the 0.3%. https://t.co/Oio648p7t6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, be wary of anecdotal stories about people getting "re-infected". Some may be true. Some may be false positives or people that were sick the whole time. COVID is weird; the immune system is weird. Things that *can* happen aren't necessarily *common*. https://t.co/WCIIeOoyqb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I read a lot about COVID-19 and immunity and if your priors aren't something like "there's immunity in the short run and then it's complicated and uncertain in the long run" then I'd suggest you read more about it. A lot of headlines and tweets about this subject are misleading. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@timmarchman @karenkho Yeah. I do sort of wonder if spring 2021 could be an inflection point. Either we're making progress or people are ready to give up. I worry a lot about December/January/February, especially in states where it's too cold to do stuff outdoors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@timmarchman @karenkho The news on vaccines actually seems better than I would have thought, but my optimism about getting most of normal life back in the US pre-vaccine has diminished. Possibly with exceptions in some states/regions but also possibly not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@yeselson Yeah. I think Clinton's underperformance in PA is a little harder to explain than MI/WI. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@yeselson Yeah. I don't think people realize that it's now majority-minority. Las Vegas reminds me more and more of Los Angeles. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump can/will try what he wants, but the nonwhite share of a state increasing is fairly strongly predictive of it becoming more Democratic from election to election. https://t.co/fMhECVCwDa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Colorado isn't diversifying as much as people think. Actually ranks below average. No state became whiter between 2010 and 2019, although Washington DC did. Among actual states, South Carolina saw the smallest increase in its nonwhite population share. — PolitiTweet.org