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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Mon Jul 13 13:42:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, be wary of anecdotal stories about people getting "re-infected". Some may be true. Some may be false positives or people that were sick the whole time. COVID is weird; the immune system is weird. Things that *can* happen aren't necessarily *common*. https://t.co/WCIIeOoyqb — PolitiTweet.org

Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch

The @voxdotcom article is a perfect example of doing what @BillHanage and I wrote in Feb. would cause trouble with… https://t.co/07HcDEwp83

Posted July 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I read a lot about COVID-19 and immunity and if your priors aren't something like "there's immunity in the short run and then it's complicated and uncertain in the long run" then I'd suggest you read more about it. A lot of headlines and tweets about this subject are misleading. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 13, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To illustrate the point: a prediction market estimates that 99.7% of people who had COVID will still be immune after 6 months. If that were true (have no idea) would be pretty good news but you'd ALSO expect to see reports of reinfection among the 0.3%. https://t.co/Oio648p7t6 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 13, 2020 Hibernated