Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking***: Newly reported deaths Today: 515 Yesterday: 1,172 One week ago (7/26): 558 Newly reported cases T: 49K Y: 60K 7/26: 62K Newly reported tests T: 726K Y: 713K 7/26: 855K Positive test rate T: 6.7% Y: 8.4% 7/26: 7.2% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @benyt: How the Media Could Get the Election Story Wrong https://t.co/kDEzgI0ejl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MysteryPollster: New: The weekly @TheEconomist/@YouGovAmerica surveys ask about voter enthusiasm in three ways, which allows for a real… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Notably, these maps reflect cases where Biden could win on the basis of Florida + North Carolina (+ Arizona in one case) despite a 2016-style collapse in the Midwest. Although GA could substitute for NC in these cases, it's a redder state and more of a reach. https://t.co/bLL0knfymB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, I'd be careful about lumping these two together, though. Our model (yes, I know what it says now!) thinks North Carolina is 3-4x more likely to be the tipping point state than Georgia; that is to say, it figures into a few more scenarios than Georgia does. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A bit better for Biden than our polling average in each state. We have him up 2.2 in North Carolina and down 0.7 in Georgia. https://t.co/d4YZZdnRdo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If the race tighten even a bit, you definitely shouldn't plan on the election being called on Nov. 3. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: With an expected increase in absentee voting, could 2020 election results be delayed? @NateSilver538: “Nobody wants a rep… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @WaltHickey: @NateSilver538 there is a proven electoral track record of running Joe Biden and the junior senator from Illinois — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So I guess I'm bullish on Duckworth relative to Rice or Bass if it isn't Harris. This guess is basically no better than random, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think there's any non-pundit-y way to analyze the Veepstakes, but my priors have been that Biden would tend to be risk-averse and go for someone with a fairly high level of experience in elected office (i.e. a senator/governor). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That means, at any given time, that about 15% of teams (or 4 of the 30 MLB clubs) would have a COVID cluster somewhere in their midst. Obviously that's very back-of- the-envelope, but it seems to roughly match what we're seeing so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But suppose each team consists of 8 groups of 5 people (e.g. infielders, starting pitchers) who hang out together, and given current transmission rates within the US, each group has a 2% chance of having at least one member with COVID-19. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Note that you *can't* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they're all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The math for baseball is fairly brutal. Right now (per @youyanggu) an estimated 2% of the US population has an active COVID-19 infection. With an average traveling party of 40 people (e.g. 30 players, 10 coaches/staff) it's going to be pretty hard to avoid outbreaks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 @3Sentinel4 @youyanggu I mean yeah 20-25% is probably not enough to hit the herd immunity threshold (though estimates of the threshold range everywhere from like 20% to 70%). But lowering Rt by 20-25%, combined with half-assed measures, may be enough to make half-assed measures seem more effective. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

(And, yes, the same critique applies to NY/NJ/CT, which didn't make exactly the same mistakes as AZ/FL/TX but made plenty of mistakes of their own.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

.@youyanggu estimates that 22% of Arizonans got COVID at some point, as did 23% of Floridians. (A bit lower in Texas: 15%). While these states have also improved their mask-wearing, closed some businesses, etc., those steps came pretty late in the process. https://t.co/sAl4rWRBoV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We are seeing somewhat clearer signs of declining cases and hospitalizations in Arizona, and to a lesser extent, Florida and Texas. But to be honest, that may be partly because *so many people got COVID in those states* that susceptibility is now lower. https://t.co/DSSTfyME1n — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not a great way to close out July, with death numbers continuing to increase week over week. We are seeing slight declines in case numbers, but they're modest. The 7-day average is 62,504 cases, down from a peak of 66,870 on July 23. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 1,172 Yesterday: 1,308 One week ago (7/24): 1,037 Newly reported cases T: 60K Y: 67K 7/24: 65K Newly reported tests T: 713K Y: 889K† 7/24: 930K Positive test rate T: 8.4% Y: 7.6%† 7/24: 8.1% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

...and one can imagine that how Team Biden answers that question determines whether she's the pick or not. Of course, Biden himself is an example of how an unsuccessful primary campaign can still make for a basically successful VP pick. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To me, Kamala Harris has a lot of super obvious strengths as a VP pick (experienced, vetted, young-ish, ideologically toward the middle of her party, a "ready on day one" name in an election when voters may be seeking one). The big question is why her campaign didn't go better... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ahh, so there was a big data-reporting quirk in Minnesota that accounted for the high positive test rate. The real positive rest rate was ~7.6%, which is more in line with the slight improvement in recent days. https://t.co/DzNuQKWty4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another bad report. Deaths still increasing week over week. And while there were fewer cases reported today than last Friday, there were also fewer tests, and the positive test rate actually went up. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 1,308 Yesterday: 1,262 One week ago (7/24): 1,178 Newly reported cases T: 68K Y: 70K 7/24: 75K Newly reported tests T: 719K Y: 813K 7/24: 930K Positive test rate T: 9.4% Y: 8.6% 7/24: 8.1% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hey, so we're hiring a politics reporter! Data fluency is a plus, of course. So is experience reporting on issues such as race and ethnicity. But we're pretty open minded. If you think you might be a good fit, please apply! https://t.co/xpymj2QbBL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is also an interesting dynamic to be mindful of. If cases in this current wave tended to start with younger people before migrating to the broader population, you'd tend to expect deaths to be pretty lagged relative to cases. https://t.co/R11N9PQEJN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not a lot of good news in here, folks. Deaths continue to increase week over week. And while cases don't necessarily seem to be increasing any more, this looks more like a plateau (at very high levels!) than some of the hints of decline we saw over the weekend. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 1,291 Yesterday: 1,418 One week ago (7/23): 1,039 Newly reported cases T: 70K Y: 66K 7/23: 71K Newly reported tests T: 819K Y: 840K 7/23: 824K Positive test rate T: 8.5% Y: 7.9% 7/23: 8.6% — PolitiTweet.org