Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 01 23:44:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The math for baseball is fairly brutal. Right now (per @youyanggu) an estimated 2% of the US population has an active COVID-19 infection. With an average traveling party of 40 people (e.g. 30 players, 10 coaches/staff) it's going to be pretty hard to avoid outbreaks. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 @3Sentinel4 @youyanggu I mean yeah 20-25% is probably not enough to hit the herd immunity threshold (though estimates of the threshold range everywhere from like 20% to 70%). But lowering Rt by 20-25%, combined with half-assed measures, may be enough to make half-assed measures seem more effective. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Note that you *can't* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they're all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated