Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

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Sat Aug 01 23:44:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Note that you *can't* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they're all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The math for baseball is fairly brutal. Right now (per @youyanggu) an estimated 2% of the US population has an active COVID-19 infection. With an average traveling party of 40 people (e.g. 30 players, 10 coaches/staff) it's going to be pretty hard to avoid outbreaks. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But suppose each team consists of 8 groups of 5 people (e.g. infielders, starting pitchers) who hang out together, and given current transmission rates within the US, each group has a 2% chance of having at least one member with COVID-19. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated