Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 01 23:44:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But suppose each team consists of 8 groups of 5 people (e.g. infielders, starting pitchers) who hang out together, and given current transmission rates within the US, each group has a 2% chance of having at least one member with COVID-19. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Note that you *can't* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they're all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That means, at any given time, that about 15% of teams (or 4 of the 30 MLB clubs) would have a COVID cluster somewhere in their midst. Obviously that's very back-of- the-envelope, but it seems to roughly match what we're seeing so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2020 Hibernated