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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DanRosenheck Yeah, it's fairly inelastic. Unlike AZ (or FL or TX or GA) though it has a Democratic governor, which I can imagine proving to be relevant this year. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Hmm, it feels like South Bend is the closest airport to the Chicago metro area that people would not immediately associate with the Chicago metro area. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
What I think is safer to say is that it probably belongs in the same bucket as Arizona. It's polling very similarly, and it has more electoral votes (15 vs. 11). And both have key senate races. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
North Carolina is the state I have the least idea about. Not surprising that the two polls there today were very different (one is a D partisan poll and Pulse Opinion Research = Rasmussen). But whether it will play a lead role in the campaign isn't clear. https://t.co/d4YZZd6glQ https://t.co/W2EJaBQxVq — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
An encouraging day if there's nothing weird going on. Lowest positive test rate since 6/22. Fewest positive tests since 7/6. Week-over-week decline in deaths. But I haven't had much time to look at the state-by-state numbers so follow @COVID19Tracking and read their thread! — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 426 Yesterday: 616 One week ago (8/3): 519 Newly reported cases T: 42K Y: 51K 8/3: 50K Newly reported tests T: 716K Y: 713K 8/3: 731K Positive test rate T: 5.8% Y: 7.2% 8/3: 6.8% — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We've never had to put a disclaimer like this on our forecast before but ... well, 2020. https://t.co/aXfNfScu0h — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There are exceptions, the most obvious being Rasmussen Reports. Their brand equity is tied up in The Poll That Always Has Good News For Republicans. And they thrive off the ~30% of elections where polls have a D bias and they look smart (& hope people forget about the other 70%). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Maybe there are some "post-truth" outlets that don't even care about the pretense of objectivity. Even then, putting out inaccurate polling is pretty risky as it could serve to demonstrate to otherwise-credulous readers how disconnected you are from reality. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
For example, whatever else you think about Fox News, their polls are both very good and quite unbiased (if anything they've had a tiny D bias in recent elections). https://t.co/HBex5M5zFm — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
You do encounter issues that also occur elsewhere in political media. For many outlets, most of the audience will consist of political partisans. Even for these outlets, though, polling is sometimes an avenue they use to bolster their claims of unbiasedness and objectivity. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I think the incentives toward accuracy are pretty decent. It's easy to compare polls to one another and also to compare them against the actual result. And pollsters make a lot of claims about their accuracy when soliciting new business. Plus there's professional pride, etc. — PolitiTweet.org
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
@NateSilver538 Do they have strong incentives to be accurate? This has started to be the thing that worries me abou… https://t.co/tAi9jFLhnq
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I would highly doubt that 20% of pollsters would say you can get away without weighting by race, conversely, except perhaps in a state where almost everybody is the same race. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So if 20% of expert pollsters have thought carefully about these problems, and concluded education weighting causes more trouble than it's worth and there are better ways around the problem, I'm highly inclined to let them have their (still quite small) 20% weight in my average. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
But there are some important constraints here. Polls mostly have strong incentives to be accurate. And they are mostly run by people with a lot of experience (often a lifetime's worth) of doing polling. So an average reflects a consensus of expert judgement. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I agree with the default assumption that diversity is good for averages, but this is taking it too far for me. Do w… https://t.co/8fsbA2jVsl
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If I ran a poll, I'd definitely weight by education. But I'm not sure that a *polling average* made up of 100% polls that weight by education will be better than one where *most* polls weight by education, but some take alternative approaches. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One reason I don't get too riled up about whether a pollster weights by education is that general, a consensus metric like a polling average is going to be stronger if it's comprised of people who do different things than if everybody takes exactly the same approach. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
On the other hand — although I'm not on Team Failure To Weight By Education Is The Root Of All Evil -- this could be an issue with a very college-educated sample. https://t.co/NfOBG27GcR — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Unbelievably, the Battleground poll--sponsored by Georgetown University and conducted by two fairly well known part… https://t.co/NYgBDsKLy4
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A Georgetown/Battleground live-caller poll showing Biden up 13 lends some credence to the theory that Trump's apparent gains in the polls may partly reflect mode effects. (That is, not many live-caller polls lately but lots of IVR & online polls). https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/dURp7joLsq — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I continue to think messaging around social distancing would be more effective at achieving continued buy-in for social distancing if it were framed more empathetically. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
That NYMag article is a very good and balanced summary of some tricky areas of research, maybe the best on these subjects so far. Wasn't meaning to denigrate it in any way. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
As risky it can be for people like me without extensive domain knowledge to read the preprints, there are a lot of cases like this where the mainstream media comes around to ideas you could have picked up upon a month or two ago by reading the preprints. https://t.co/Ncktjfc3Fy — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Deaths are up versus last Sunday, which is a little disappointing after several days of plateaus/declines. With that said, there were a fair number of disruptions in reporting this week, which could make the numbers a bit more erratic than usual. https://t.co/9Q0cR7LuSp — PolitiTweet.org
The COVID Tracking Project @COVID19Tracking
The 7-day average for cases seems likely to rise. There were storm-related drops in testing and cases, which showed… https://t.co/Duwusyxfwg
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 616 Yesterday: 1,088 One week ago (8/2): 498 Newly reported cases T: 51K Y: 54K 8/2: 48K Newly reported tests T: 712K Y: 665K 8/2: 713K Positive test rate T: 7.2% Y: 8.1% 8/2: 6.8% — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Every election year is "fun" in its own way. This year's fun will come in the form of the general public likely thi… https://t.co/tRw62RLHON — PolitiTweet.org
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
All the non-journos I know are sure Biden will lose but don’t do a good job of justifying that underconfidence in h… https://t.co/dCmGREpe0C
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
But the empirically-driven intuitions that (1) elections tend to be close in a highly polarized era and (2) Trump w… https://t.co/8Ejv1GBvIC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Of course, you can use a prior other than zero based on the economy or incumbency or what not if you want. Given re… https://t.co/uvycyuGz7z — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Something else to keep in mind is that presidential elections tend to tighten down the stretch run. So an 8-point B… https://t.co/zHf7JLgUgm — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ABCPolitics: “I’m really not making predictions here, but I suppose I buy the conventional wisdom that Harris is the favorite,” @NateSi… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@gelliottmorris I've been giving you good advice that I don't give to a lot of people. It's your call on whether to… https://t.co/aQx0jbxRrn — PolitiTweet.org
