Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 10 17:23:04 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If I ran a poll, I'd definitely weight by education. But I'm not sure that a *polling average* made up of 100% polls that weight by education will be better than one where *most* polls weight by education, but some take alternative approaches. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One reason I don't get too riled up about whether a pollster weights by education is that general, a consensus metric like a polling average is going to be stronger if it's comprised of people who do different things than if everybody takes exactly the same approach. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But there are some important constraints here. Polls mostly have strong incentives to be accurate. And they are mostly run by people with a lot of experience (often a lifetime's worth) of doing polling. So an average reflects a consensus of expert judgement. — PolitiTweet.org

I agree with the default assumption that diversity is good for averages, but this is taking it too far for me. Do w… https://t.co/8fsbA2jVsl

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated