Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mention this in part because Biden has gained 3.0 points in our national polling average since the debate, but only 1.2 points in polling average in the average swing state. It's a bit weird, but it's a direct reflection of what the polls are showing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a sanity check, here's a comparison of our current "fancy" 538 averages to a simple average of post-debate polls for states with at least 3 post-debate polls. As you can see, the simple and fancy methods are very close to one another. https://t.co/NvUEui9cT4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @KaleighRogers: Is psychosis really a common side effect of dexamethasone? Since there's been a lot of speculation about the president's… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden has a double-digit lead in our national polling average for the first time. Interestingly enough, state polls have been a little "meh" for Biden for the past day or two though. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/XOpmnXO713 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In races with adequate amounts of public polling—an important qualifier, but certainly true for the presidential race—you should pay zero attention to accounts of what campaigns' internal polls say. https://t.co/tyIZ8cJb5p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @lachlan: Amazing https://t.co/fGI9Dzful3 https://t.co/Vpm4KNQwzW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, and there are a lot of reasons not to give it credence. There are reasons to think the president's health is getting better, but his doctor has explicitly said that his goal is to frame things in a positive light rather than to provide accurate or precise information. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump trails by 8.3 points in our Michigan polling average. https://t.co/t9jgEHjull https://t.co/Idluog7aEH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, there are pretty strong incentives for Republican senators not to get tested right now, or not to accurately disclose the results of positive tests. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: We took a detailed look at how and why Jaime Harrison is basically tied in the polls against Lindsey Graham. A big part o… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A fairly weird, eclectic mix of polls today, and might be that way for the next couple of days too, as a lot of the more high-profile pollsters don't like to poll on debate days, instead coming out with polls beforehand or afterward. https://t.co/9AeTKX5o0O — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn Guilty as charged! It could be anything from "Trump leads by 20" to "Alaska is the tipping-point state" and I wouldn't be *too* surprised. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn I don't wanna bias your poll but on #TeamAlaska here. A bit more likely to be competitive at the presidential level, a House race that could determine whether the GOP controls 26 congressional delegations, and your value over replacement pollsters is going to be very high there. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn I don't wanna the poll but on #TeamAlaska here. A bit more likely to be competitive at the presidential level, a House race that could determine whether the GOP has 26 congressional delegations, and your value over a replacement pollster is very very high in that state. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ne0liberal @mattyglesias Y'all both stole it from me. https://t.co/t3n3jww353 https://t.co/szw0zPb4Ht — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @laurabronner: So, we actually have data on this, and it turns out there's much more of a gender gap when it comes to rating Pence's per… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our post-debate poll with @Ipsos shows voters liked Harris's performance better and her favorable ratings improved. But no change in numbers for the top of the ticket. https://t.co/nCGuSF76Fk https://t.co/mdTekkdc68 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not intrinsically unreasonable but also very likely they don't want Trump to debate in his current state of COVID and that's their objection more than whether the debate is virtual or not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ordinarily, declining to debate when your 10 points down would be a terrible strategic decision, although I'm not sure how effective Trump would be in a debate where he's still suffering from COVID-19 symptoms. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @geoffreyvs: With President Trump backing out of the virtual debate (for the moment at least), @sfrostenson, @baseballot, @NateSilver538… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I'm confused at this point about whether we should find the European deaths data (indeed increasing but not that quickly so far) to be good news or bad news on balance. https://t.co/k5I0BtQ4TB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Other small thing: although previous polling shifts were mostly determined by Trump's numbers rising or falling while Biden's held steady, we have seen an increase in Biden's # this time. Since the debate, he's gained 1.7 points while Trump has lost 1.1. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/TUqBUGOzgX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3) The forecast slightly dampens polling shifts after debates, to see whether they can he sustained. Bottom line: ordinarily you'd think the race is somewhat more likely to tighten than for Biden's lead to expand, although these are not normal times so who knows at this point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1) Our forecast is mostly based on state polls, and the evidence isn't quite as strong there yet for a 10-point Biden lead 2) The forecast still incorporates a tiny bit of a prior based on economics & incumbency, which points toward a closer race given improved economic data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although our *national polling average* has Biden +9.8, our *forecast* of the popular vote has him ahead by "only" +8.0 instead. What accounts for the difference? Three small things: https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/rSoKKVb84x — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also small thing but saying "Democrat" when "Democratic" is more elegant and grammatically correct (as in "Democrat Agenda" rather than "Democratic Agenda") is an *extremely* reliable sign that someone is a partisan Republican who watches a lot of middlebrow conservative media. https://t.co/HUKq85lGTd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is bearish for Biden since it's from the same idiots who said a month ago to "prepare for a Trump win" because of Google searches for cancel culture. https://t.co/nBO8YjOOeE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Really more polls are coming in showing Biden up double digits than not at this point. He's up to +9.8 in our national polling average, his largest lead of the campaign. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/lunxwlWxd7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @petersuderman: If you play a lot of video game RPGs, you quickly realize that even the most sophisticated games are scripted so that th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveyFox: Hi, everyone. Fivey here! I’ll be sharing polling data throughout the vice presidential debate so you know what Americans thi… — PolitiTweet.org