Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 30, 2021

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Thu Oct 08 15:03:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3) The forecast slightly dampens polling shifts after debates, to see whether they can he sustained. Bottom line: ordinarily you'd think the race is somewhat more likely to tighten than for Biden's lead to expand, although these are not normal times so who knows at this point. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1) Our forecast is mostly based on state polls, and the evidence isn't quite as strong there yet for a 10-point Biden lead 2) The forecast still incorporates a tiny bit of a prior based on economics & incumbency, which points toward a closer race given improved economic data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Other small thing: although previous polling shifts were mostly determined by Trump's numbers rising or falling while Biden's held steady, we have seen an increase in Biden's # this time. Since the debate, he's gained 1.7 points while Trump has lost 1.1. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/TUqBUGOzgX — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 8, 2020 Hibernated