Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 30, 2021

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Thu Oct 08 15:03:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although our *national polling average* has Biden +9.8, our *forecast* of the popular vote has him ahead by "only" +8.0 instead. What accounts for the difference? Three small things: https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/rSoKKVb84x — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also small thing but saying "Democrat" when "Democratic" is more elegant and grammatically correct (as in "Democrat Agenda" rather than "Democratic Agenda") is an *extremely* reliable sign that someone is a partisan Republican who watches a lot of middlebrow conservative media. https://t.co/HUKq85lGTd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1) Our forecast is mostly based on state polls, and the evidence isn't quite as strong there yet for a 10-point Biden lead 2) The forecast still incorporates a tiny bit of a prior based on economics & incumbency, which points toward a closer race given improved economic data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 8, 2020 Hibernated