Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 1, 2021

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Fri Oct 09 19:40:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mention this in part because Biden has gained 3.0 points in our national polling average since the debate, but only 1.2 points in polling average in the average swing state. It's a bit weird, but it's a direct reflection of what the polls are showing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As a sanity check, here's a comparison of our current "fancy" 538 averages to a simple average of post-debate polls for states with at least 3 post-debate polls. As you can see, the simple and fancy methods are very close to one another. https://t.co/NvUEui9cT4 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth noting that *before* the debate, state polls tended to be a bit *better* for Biden than the national polls, implying that he was ahead by ~8 points rather than ~7. So there's likely a bit of mean reversion here. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 9, 2020 Hibernated