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Showing page 212 of 910.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RCP's averages are extremely subject to who happens to have polled the state recently, which is often the spammier, lower-quality pollsters, and that's been especially true recently with live-caller polls not having been terribly active in the states over the past 2 weeks. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Folks, Biden's lead didn't shrink from 7.3 points to 3.6 points in PA in a week (as per RCP) at the same time it was steady or slightly growing nationally. This is why you need poll averages that take a longer time horizon and/or adjust for house effects. https://t.co/wKbW02AGO5 https://t.co/daWEKcLlAm — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A comparatively good morning of polls for Trump, although it says something about the state of play when you see a poll showing him 9 points behind nationally and say to yourself "hey, not bad!". https://t.co/de6e1opDuN — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @baseballot: I wrote about the state legislatures and governorships that could flip in this year's blue wave: https://t.co/UHNpPeeUUG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @penguinpress: We're only 2 weeks away from #ElectionDay! There has never been a more important time to read @NateSilver538's The Signal… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @galendruke: 🎧 New pod 🎧 We discussed how Biden's lead is different from Clinton's (but also why that's not the most salient question)… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @mkraju: John Roberts joined the three liberals while Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh dissented from the… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Pretty good chance of a cancellation now I'd think. https://t.co/RdkTLlza3k — PolitiTweet.org
Mike Balsamo @MikeBalsamo1
WASHINGTON (AP) — Debate commission adopts new rules to mute microphones to allow Trump, Biden 2 minutes of uninterrupted time per segment.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @DataDhrumil: ... • Intermediate steps performed in calculating the chance of winning from the polling averages in presidential, House a… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @DataDhrumil: The dataset now includes: • Individual polls with house effects and trend line adjustments • Probability that each candid… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @DataDhrumil: 🚨Updated dataset: 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻-𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝘀-𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬 Our election forecast data download is now packed with lots of additional data… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @zachheltzel: https://t.co/uaYialypac — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen It's roughly breakeven for him if his expected value is -1 point with a standard deviation of +/-3 points. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Like, if this is what's coming out of Trump these days, it's not clear that Stepien wants him debating, especially if he could also impact downballot races. https://t.co/v192EZ8F7o — PolitiTweet.org
Daniel Dale @ddale8
Trump just debuted a new attack line against Biden: “He wants to listen to Dr. Fauci.”
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Unless Stepien thinks Trump would be so bad that debating would lower his comeback odds, even though Trump generally wants high-variance strategies. It's not crazy: Trump historically loses ground following debates and his messaging has been even more erratic than usual lately. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The thing is that Trump has very little leverage here. He needs the debate a lot more than Biden does. — PolitiTweet.org
BillStepien @BillStepien
Our letter to the BDC (Biden Debate Commission) https://t.co/ZsY5JfMbT7
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Morning Consult also steady at +9, same as pre-NY Post story. https://t.co/t55uhZVCMg — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There's no sign of tightening here, in other words. On average these polls (not a particularly good group for Biden) show Biden ahead by 9 points, exactly the same as before the NY Post story last Wednesday. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
5 national polls were in the field this weekend. Here's what they say compared to the last edition of the poll before the Hunter Biden story/"story" broke. RMG: Biden +8 now/+8 before SurveyMonkey: +8/+6 TIPP: Biden +5.5/+8 USC: +12.5/+13 YouGov: +11/+10 https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@thecity2 No, and if anything they're a contrarian indicator relative to polls. https://t.co/EFqBQPTpEz — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @micahcohen: Have you bookmarked our election administration live blog? https://t.co/N5XOsphONS No? What are you, some sorta chump? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
With 15 days to go, the president is lasering in on the issues most important to swing voters. — PolitiTweet.org
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
...P.S. Tony should stop wearing the Washington Nationals’ Mask for two reasons. Number one, it is not up to the hi… https://t.co/wKJf9NuCj4
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MattZeitlin Probably about half and half. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Why Trump could win: there's still some time left, tipping-point state polls are closer than national polls, sometimes polls are wrong (though they'd need to be more than a little wrong this year), and mail voting and court disputes create some additional uncertainties. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One tough balance to strike is that particularly theories for why Trump will win are often poorly argued and full of wishful thinking and/or cherry-picking, and so it's easy to want to rebut the particulars. And yet, Trump still does have a nontrivial chance, per our model. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Loosely speaking, I think it means they're working backwards, i.e. they know what result they want then engineer their sample, etc. to get there. The National Review article I linked earlier makes it clear they have lots of degrees of freedom in how they construct their sample. https://t.co/cC34RX4e9k — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Trafalgar's last 4 polls of Pennsylvania are Biden 48 Trump 46 B 47 T 45 B 48 T 46 B 47 T 45 It is not common to get such uncannily consistent results with 1000 person samples. And the same is true for their polls in other states. So what does it mean? https://t.co/CUzOqLLk4C — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This interview with Trafalgar Group really worried me, for instance. These are not conventional polling methods and… https://t.co/ZXB8NfYMRm
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @maggiekb1: What did we learn from our pandemic summer? 1. Situation matters more than temperature. It's getting colder now, but what… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@CahnEmily We re-examined some things after Trump's primary win in 2016 and the 2016/2020 version of our model tends to be a bit more conservative than our 2008/2012 version. So the 2012 version of our model would likely be more confident in Biden than what we're showing now. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@CahnEmily National polls were tighter in 2012, but I don't actually think that swing state polls were, and there were very few undecideds which made Obama's leads safer. — PolitiTweet.org
