Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Mon Oct 19 17:51:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One tough balance to strike is that particularly theories for why Trump will win are often poorly argued and full of wishful thinking and/or cherry-picking, and so it's easy to want to rebut the particulars. And yet, Trump still does have a nontrivial chance, per our model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Loosely speaking, I think it means they're working backwards, i.e. they know what result they want then engineer their sample, etc. to get there. The National Review article I linked earlier makes it clear they have lots of degrees of freedom in how they construct their sample. https://t.co/cC34RX4e9k — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why Trump could win: there's still some time left, tipping-point state polls are closer than national polls, sometimes polls are wrong (though they'd need to be more than a little wrong this year), and mail voting and court disputes create some additional uncertainties. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 19, 2020 Hibernated