Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Tue Oct 20 15:30:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RCP's averages are extremely subject to who happens to have polled the state recently, which is often the spammier, lower-quality pollsters, and that's been especially true recently with live-caller polls not having been terribly active in the states over the past 2 weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Folks, Biden's lead didn't shrink from 7.3 points to 3.6 points in PA in a week (as per RCP) at the same time it was steady or slightly growing nationally. This is why you need poll averages that take a longer time horizon and/or adjust for house effects. https://t.co/wKbW02AGO5 https://t.co/daWEKcLlAm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I love many things about RCP, but if you have an average and 1/3 of it consists of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage and 0% of it consists of live-caller polls, it's not going to be a very reliable average. https://t.co/3LTQ7gEwAd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated