Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Tue Oct 20 15:32:37 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I love many things about RCP, but if you have an average and 1/3 of it consists of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage and 0% of it consists of live-caller polls, it's not going to be a very reliable average. https://t.co/3LTQ7gEwAd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RCP's averages are extremely subject to who happens to have polled the state recently, which is often the spammier, lower-quality pollsters, and that's been especially true recently with live-caller polls not having been terribly active in the states over the past 2 weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's more of a sliding scale than a fixed time horizon, where our algorithm is trying to manage a trade-off between quality and recency. But you also need to account for house effects; the polls in the RCP average in PA are a really friendly set for Trump. https://t.co/wxRaq7bDjI — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 How far back is your time horizon? Do more recent polls get weighted higher in such an average?

Posted Oct. 20, 2020 Hibernated