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Showing page 191 of 910.
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
But if we're mostly done with "late earlies" (ballots sent by mail that arrived just before the election—those were good for Trump) and moving on to other miscellaneous stuff, there's no particular reason to expect Trump to keep clawing back ground. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Arizona's transparency on exactly which type of ballots are in each release of data is fairly poor, which is why I suppose that one might want to hedge a bit. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Trump needed to win these big but Biden won them. Unless I'm missing something (always possible) this is very negative for Trump's chances of winning AZ. — PolitiTweet.org
OHPI @OHPredictive
New ballots added in #MaricopaCounty, #Arizona Trump: 2,999 (43.7%) Biden: 3,753 (54.7%) Jorgensen: 110 (1.6%) Tot… https://t.co/yafygl1AhE
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
That Democrats will have at best a 50-50 Senate majority and more likely a 48-52 minority will constrain Biden's policy ambitions, which is obviously awful news for Democrats overall but also means any policies Biden is able to pass thru Congress will likely be broadly popular. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There are some reasons to think Biden could be reasonably popular. His personal favorable ratings are decent. Next year may be a year of improvement for the economy and the pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org
Conor Sen @conorsen
Obama had a multi-year economic headwind due to something that happened before he got elected (the financial crisis… https://t.co/S5anKMFHZZ
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's also not as though COVID was something that necessarily doomed Trump. Off-hand, lots of incumbents around the world—in countries that handled it even marginally better than the US—seemed to see their popularity rise. (We're working on more rigorous analysis on this topic.) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Per our reckoning, Trump *underperformed* the fundamentals by 4-5 points based on some combination of his COVID handling and ... everything else. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah, our economics + incumbency prior had the race as a tossup. Growth was solid for Trump's first 3 years, the 3Q recovery has been impressive, and CARES put a lot of money in people's pockets. — PolitiTweet.org
Eric Levitz @EricLevitz
A lot of punditry (including my own) assumed that 2020 was an exceptionally favorable electoral environment for Dem… https://t.co/WkpO33xN6l
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In terms of where the popular vote will end up... keep in mind that there are 1.2 million mail ballots in New York State that haven't been counted yet and based on what's happening in PA (which, like New York, had little mail voting before) those are likely to be VERY Democratic. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Super pronounced Northeast vs. Midwest split that runs right through Pennsylvania. — PolitiTweet.org
Derek Thompson @DKThomp
holy moly did the northeast come home for the democratic party this cycle https://t.co/IvZiFp0Jes
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @all_the_ears: ok @fiveyfox you can sleep now https://t.co/ASMD0MBCXA — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In heavily Hispanic Starr County, TX in the Rio Grande Valley—which may have the biggest swing toward Trump of any county in the country—turnout was up massively, from 11,700 four years ago to 17,500 this year. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One of the questions I'm more intrigued by is whether polls missed Trump support among lower-propensity Hispanic (and perhaps also Black) voters. These voters can be hard to get on the phone and/or may be screened out by likely voter models. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @baseballot: As FiveThirtyEight wraps up its coverage of election night (LOL), I want to make sure @sfrostenson is publicly credited/emb… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @Redistrict: Finally ready to solve. “I’ve keen energy” — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @juruwolfe: AND THAT'S A WRAP 😭😭😭 (beautiful map from @wiederkehra ) https://t.co/Inwaul7qPV https://t.co/3RbGHEeTnD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: "They delivered us a clear victory, a convincing victory," Joe Biden says. Indeed, Biden’s win wasn't a landslide, by… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: “While I may be the first woman in this office, I will not be the last." https://t.co/skCW7Koi7y — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ClareMalone: I spent a lot of the past four years talking to my dad about people and politics, about good and evil. That's kind of wher… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Hard not to be amused that prediction markets still have Trump with a 7% chance of winning. https://t.co/ShS2uDYO9q — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @TheBradMielke: ABC now projects that Joe Biden will win Nevada. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @micahcohen: My colleagues @FiveThirtyEight worked smartly, tirelessly and just ... they did a LOT of work ... to cover this election. M… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Anybody who's like "we'll that was a pretty good showing for Trump!" should consider how Hillary Clinton was treated as the World's Biggest Loser after an election with the same Electoral College margin as this one*. * But where she won the popular vote instead of losing it by 5 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @Timodc: The human needle was at 50.1% Biden when the Arizona call started to look shaky and before Milwaukee dropped but it never cross… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
That was simulation #22176 by the way https://t.co/tPsimuwQLD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @micahcohen: Def read @ClareMalone's thoughts on Biden's win and Trump's loss: https://t.co/GnPOLVJdNl — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A year ago, any Democrat would have been happy with this map, taking back the Blue Wall + (almost certainly) GA + (probably) AZ + what should be a ~5-point popular vote win on super high turnout. https://t.co/PhgGl2DaHd — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
These immediate post-election stories are hard to write and often don't age well, but here's my attempt. This was a fairly *convincing* win for Joe Biden. https://t.co/d2N52ykS9F — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
https://t.co/PO6Gnum3je https://t.co/OXeRo02SwI — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DanRosenheck Ohio's not going to be a 6-point error. Lots of D vote left to count there. Upscale Midwestern metros like Kansas City that counted quickly looked pretty good for Biden all night. And keep in mind that with AZ/GA, Biden's path was robust to some Midwest losses. — PolitiTweet.org
