Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 18, 2020

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Sun Nov 08 17:49:34 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, our economics + incumbency prior had the race as a tossup. Growth was solid for Trump's first 3 years, the 3Q recovery has been impressive, and CARES put a lot of money in people's pockets. — PolitiTweet.org

A lot of punditry (including my own) assumed that 2020 was an exceptionally favorable electoral environment for Dem… https://t.co/WkpO33xN6l

Posted Nov. 8, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In terms of where the popular vote will end up... keep in mind that there are 1.2 million mail ballots in New York State that haven't been counted yet and based on what's happening in PA (which, like New York, had little mail voting before) those are likely to be VERY Democratic. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Per our reckoning, Trump *underperformed* the fundamentals by 4-5 points based on some combination of his COVID handling and ... everything else. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2020