Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 18, 2020

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Sun Nov 08 17:50:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Per our reckoning, Trump *underperformed* the fundamentals by 4-5 points based on some combination of his COVID handling and ... everything else. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, our economics + incumbency prior had the race as a tossup. Growth was solid for Trump's first 3 years, the 3Q recovery has been impressive, and CARES put a lot of money in people's pockets. — PolitiTweet.org

A lot of punditry (including my own) assumed that 2020 was an exceptionally favorable electoral environment for Dem… https://t.co/WkpO33xN6l

Posted Nov. 8, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's also not as though COVID was something that necessarily doomed Trump. Off-hand, lots of incumbents around the world—in countries that handled it even marginally better than the US—seemed to see their popularity rise. (We're working on more rigorous analysis on this topic.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2020