Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BallouxFrancois Is their data suggesting that the fitness advantage of the new variant is declining over time? e.g. in London it went from 1.11x/day in the preceding epoch to 1.03x/day in the most recent epoch. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not all good news by any means. Absent the new variant, we might have been able to drive caseloads to be very low by April/May, their model suggests. Now that's going to take longer. Still, a quick vaccine pace may allow us to avoid (further) overloading hospitals, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This CDC report on the new COVID variant suggests that cases will continue to fall despite the emergence of the new variant IF we can vaccinate people quickly enough. (They assume 1M doses/day; the US has averaged about 850k/day in the past week.) https://t.co/TfrZenO35O https://t.co/TBq1H2Sbob — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ne0liberal Loeffler 2.0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd put it like this. The Fox News call of Arizona was interesting precisely because it was, um, aggressive. At the same time, a lot of media coverage on election night didn't fully anticipate the blue shift (even though many news orgs like 538 had warned about it in advance). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you know older or high-risk friends or family members who are eligible for the COVID vaccine but aren't as digitally savvy as you are, please don't hesitate to work with them to help get them signed up. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Perhaps worth noting that Scott voted to reject the electoral votes from Pennsylvania. Didn't get a lot of attention because it happened in the middle of the night. (He hadn't voted to reject Arizona's electoral votes.) https://t.co/zVa5xHfqul — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi Yeah. And that's already a pretty big gap because my basic impression is that most people want to manage their risk, but aren't always hearing clear enough guidance about how to do so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin I think (because most reporters/experts/etc. aren't getting out and about as much) it's also even harder than usual to know what all of this sounds like to someone at, say, the 40th percentile of news consumption. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

COVID policy is going to get even more complicated when, on the one hand, a sizable and growing minority of the population has been vaccinated and wants to resume higher-risk activities and, OTOH, people who aren't immune may have more risk than ever because of new variants. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DavidLauter: @NateSilver538 Another factor that could affect midterm performance is the strong possibility that by 2nd/3rd quarter of 2… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart It's extremely bullish for Yang. Keeps him at the center of the conversation. That's worth a LOT in a multi-way primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plus, Georgia was a midterm-like environment in certain respects, and Democrats did better in the runoffs than they had in November. And that was *before* 1/6. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know, I guess the smart money is on the GOP gaining ground at the midterms, as the opposition party usually does. But one of the exceptions to that was 9/11, when the president's party gained ground in the midterms, and 1/6 resembles 9/11 in certain ways. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, there's also a pinch of pre-1/6 data that still has an influence on the average. Not a big difference at this point but if you only used polls that are fully 1/6 you'd wind up with something more like 37/59 instead of 38/58. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Obviously one can ask "why isn't it even lower?" but this is the sharpest downshift of his presidency and the highest disapproval rating of his presidency. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump Approve / Disapprove rating: Election Day: 44.6 / 52.6 (-8.0) Morning of 1/6: 42.6 / 53.2 (-10.6) Now: 38.1 / 58.0 (-19.9) https://t.co/Vfmzd6B2ps https://t.co/lyxL5QBbGZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ryanabest: Patrick Mahomes's sheer greatness is undeniable. He's the best QB of his generation and is on track to be the greatest ever.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @SethPartnow @bbstats Yeah, this was based on data from 2013-14 through 2018-19, if that makes a difference. We also find stronger effects later in the game, holding the score differential constant. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow @kmedved @bbstats We tried to use what's basically unregressed +/- in calibrating the score effects adjustment for RAPTOR and found that it's about 50% smaller in the playoffs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not the only issue here but the (second) impeachment already happened, while Trump was still president. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OTOH, their title chances shot up from ~2% to ~15%. And their lineup with everyone healthy (including Dinwiddie) is as strong as any in the league. https://t.co/i3U5UyC3sA https://t.co/vB6oyIpxEO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm as much of a Harden stan/defender as anyone and... that's a LOT to give up. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

First person to be impeached twice by the U.S. Congress. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Alex_Panetta: BREAKING: This is now the most *bipartisan* presidential impeachment in American history. Six Republicans have already v… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @AnaCabrera: Several GOP sources tell CNN that if McConnell supports conviction, Trump almost certainly will be convicted by 67 senators… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @chrislhayes: @NateSilver538 yes! same for "impeached twice" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Honestly the idea of Mike Pence being president for 12 hours or something, so that everyone who looks back at the list of U.S. Presidents generations from now is like "WTF happened there?", is another (small) reason to vote on removal *before* Trump leaves office. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @laurabronner: Excellent and worrying chat about the threats to US democracy by @leedrutman, @cdsamii, Jennifer McCoy and @sfrostenson.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: What led to the attack on the Capitol: https://t.co/8xy2apW83a — PolitiTweet.org