Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen The thing about tilt is it almost never ends by someone just gradually coming to their senses. Either they go broke, or something/someone intervenes. Or once in a while, they get lucky and go on a winning streak, though not sure what that would even look like in this case. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Recent Twitter business decisions seem to be conducted on a time horizon approximately 80% as long as that of Cocaine Bear. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

#2: Cities punch below their weight in terms of their impact in the Senate and to a lesser degree the House and the Electoral College. I don't like how that's the case, but that's our system. A Democratic coalition less dependent on big cities will win more elections. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, "Democrats did well in the midterms despite poor urban turnout" is a *bullish* story for Ds, for 2 reasons. #1: Turnout in big cities is often poor in midterms. In 2024, if Ds keep the swing voters they won in 2022 and have typical POTUS-year urban turnout, they'd do well. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@charlescwcooke Greatest scientific accomplishment since experts discovered that being hangry is real. https://t.co/r54pV68TvG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also not great that 3 years into the pandemic, the NYT is still comparing an *infection* fatality rate for Ebola with a *case* fatality rate for COVID. Those are very different numbers and the IFR << CFR for COVID (now more like 0.1% than 1%) since so many cases go undiagnosed. https://t.co/WwHjo7RpQ8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Somewhat randomly came across this video, which seems like it's from a completely foreign place and an almost-unrecognizable era, but is actually from another large Western liberal democracy just 16 months ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@VanessaKade If you have a late reg ticket and want to get a cup of coffee or something before you get a seat assignment, that's obviously fine. But once you get a seat card, your tournament has begun and you should be expedient. I don't see how that's any different from a broken table. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not that it's the most important thing but the statement on the left is much much better than the one on the right. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Liv_Boeree Maybe destroying Twitter is EA. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

News organizations like the NYT already had mixed feelings about their reporters using Twitter and if you can now be suspended from Twitter for doing fairly straightforward reporting, you have to wonder if that's the tipping point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin But also, I'm not sure we should compare the primary and general electorates. COVID policy (what was actually implemented, not what the MPHs wanted) actually tracked with consensus public opinion fairly well. But the GOP primary electorate does not = consensus opinion. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin I mean, the GOP didn't really make a big deal of COVID policy in the midterms. When they did in 2021, they did pretty well. Of course, COVID restrictions were a much fresher memory in '21 than '22, so it's hard to know how a greater emphasis would have worked out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin But, like, compared to what? COVID-19 policy had a much bigger impact on the average GOP primary voter's life than lots of culture war issues like say policy toward trans kids. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion I don't think so! This is the most vulnerable Trump has been in a while. Both voters (per polls) and GOP opinion leaders have shifted fairly sharply toward DeSantis. And campaigns are partly confidence games: with every opinion leader who shifts, it's easier for the next one. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The prediction market I'd want to see is something like "will Trump hold at least 7 rallies in early-voting states in 4Q 2023". That's a pretty low threshold for a non-half-assed campaign. I'd buy it at 60% and sell at 80%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade lol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

He also has plausible reasons to *officially* have declared even if he hasn't yet decided whether to run an effortful campaign: 1) may deter prosecution; 2) gets him more media coverage; 3) keeping his foot in the door may deter GOP from coalescing on an alternative. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is Trump actually running for president? I mean I know he's officially "running for president" but he's not actually doing almost any of the things that you'd expect a candidate to do when they're running for president. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 It's better than the Sokol hoaxes tbh because they can never help themselves from being a little too contemptuous and on the nose whereas this is totally deadpan. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Been working on my second book for a year-and-a-half now, and I kind of feel like a chipmunk storing nuts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This account about the shortcomings of the public health bureaucracy during the COVID vaccine rollout is pretty damning and is the sort of thing that deserves more attention relative to more symbolic culture war fights. https://t.co/5tUlfYT5JD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We spent 7 years where the hypothesis "nothing could break Trump's hold on GOP voters" was pretty much always true, now something clearly has broken it* and it feels like that deserves more analysis. * Which is not to say he can't win though I think he's an underdog to RDS. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In advance of the 2016 GOP nomination campaign a lot of folks (including me) dismissed polls showing Trump doing well among GOP primary voters. Well, now there's more and more evidence from polls that GOP voters are tiring of Trump and turning to DeSantis. https://t.co/HeiWZUb9dO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of people who would purport to understand the replication crisis are still way too willing to cite one-off studies to prove their point. Most studies are crap, it's trivially easy to cherry-pick studies or experts to suit your narrative, finding the truth is hard. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Agree with pretty much the whole thread. The "old" Twitter was a nasty place for all types of people based in large part on deliberate choices that Twitter management made. And everyone knew about it and complained about it. Talk that implies these were the good old days is nuts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss Yeah there's a difference between political identity as in "who are your allies in the meme war?" and as in "how would you line up from left to right if you took a quiz on issue positions?". Both are important, though Elon reflects an unusually large gap between the two. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: 🎧 New pod 🎧 @NateSilver538 and I talk about Sinema's switch, the latest Trump/DeSantis polling, the likelihood an American… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Close call but—going out on a limb here—perhaps *slightly* more important to the future of humanity than how Elon Musk is running Twitter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: “Georgia is still a little bit Republican-leaning but both parties can win key races there." Is the Peach State here to… — PolitiTweet.org