Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

He also has plausible reasons to *officially* have declared even if he hasn't yet decided whether to run an effortful campaign: 1) may deter prosecution; 2) gets him more media coverage; 3) keeping his foot in the door may deter GOP from coalescing on an alternative. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The prediction market I'd want to see is something like "will Trump hold at least 7 rallies in early-voting states in 4Q 2023". That's a pretty low threshold for a non-half-assed campaign. I'd buy it at 60% and sell at 80%. — PolitiTweet.org